Hayots Ashkharh , Armenia
Dec 8 2007

WHAT CHANCES THE CANDIDATES HAVE

Or, how the electorate will orient itself

December 6 marked the end of the nomination of the candidates for
presidency. Although the general number of the pretenders who
participated in the 2003 presidential elections remained unchanged,
the list of the candidates relying on the votes of the pro-Opposition
electorate has become fractioned, `split’ and divergent.
Among the nominated candidates, i.e. Prime Minister Serge
Sargsyan, former NA Speaker Arthur Baghdasaryan, NA Vice Speakere
Vahan Hovhannisyan, former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, former
Prime Minister Vazgen Manoukyan, former Mayor of the town of Yerevan
Artashes Geghamyan, former Advisor to the NKR President Arman
Melikyan, as well as Aram Haroutyunyan and Tigran Karapetyan, there
are two of people (the last two of them) who haven’t held public
posts up to date.
However, strange as it is, these two candidates are going to be
the `statists’ of the upcoming electoral campaign. It’s clear that
they have advanced their candidacies purely with the purpose of
having an arena to introduce their viewpoints, so they will be unable
to stand in serious rivalry the former and present-day officials.
Perhaps with the exception of Arman Melikyan who will hardly
manage to receive a serious number of votes; as to the rest of the
candidates, the people know them perfectly well as former and
present-day officials, former and present-day candidates of
presidency or at least leaders of parties elected to the National
Assembly.
Let’s try to conduct a more thorough study of the chances of each
of them, based not on the sympathy for or antipathy to this or that
candidate, but rather, on the results of the polls conducted in
Armenia by a number of competent centers, especially `Gelup’, as well
as on the maximum chances of each of the candidates for opening `a
second breath’ in the final stage of the elections.
To begin with, the fact of being recognized by society implies the
existence of both a clear-cut sympathy and an equally clear-cut
antipathy. The votes of those who occupy an intermediate position
between these two and who are still hesitant and have not oriented
themselves, will naturally disperse to third candidates in case of
the existence of the rivals known to public. And it is in this
respect that the current campaign will fundamentally differ from the
1998 and 2003 elections.
The thing is that there was a protestant electorate consisting of
about half a million people who definitely voted against the
pro-Government candidate and were mainly guided by the subconscious
motive of returning to the Soviet past embodied in the image of Karen
Demirtchyan and his son. Now, this protestant electorate has not only
decreased in number but has also been deprived of the opportunity of
looking `in one direction’. And this means that there has emerged a
vast asymmetry between the pro-Government and the pro-Opposition
electorates in terms of being consolidated.
Therefore, even if we assume for a moment that there exists the
above-mentioned electorate consisting of half a million people (which
will be a great exaggeration), we can, nonetheless, confidently
conclude that it will be unable to focus on any pro-Opposition
candidate on February 19. The reason is obvious: none of the
nominated candidates definitely embodies the `blissful past’ and, at
the same time, none of them has great chances for consolidating the
votes of the pro-Opposition electorate.
a) Arthur Baghdasaryan: his electorate includes the members of
`Rule of Law’ party, around 80 thousand in number, as well as the
army of the sympathizers who, during all the parliamentary elections,
would attract part of the pro-Opposition electorate, as well as the
socially vulnerable, the disabled, the elderly and especially the
blind.
b) Artashes Geghamyan: his electorate is small, though these are
people who will definitely vote in his favor. During the previous
parliamentary elections he did not cross the 5 per cent borderline
for a very simple reason: A. Geghamyan had ceased to play his
characteristic role of `savior’ and was trying to assume the image of
a person with an alien `ideology’, citing the world-famous
philosophers and statesmen’s ideas, which sounded inconceivable and
complicated to the voter. Therefore, in case of assuming the `old
role’, the leader of `National Unity’ may receive some part of the
votes of the electorate.
c) Vahan Hovhannisyan: his potential electorate is well-known too.
These are the intellectuals sympathizing with the ARFD, as well as
some part of the war-veterans and civil servant, i.e. the votes
received by ARFD during the past parliamentary elections.
d) Vazgen Manoukyan: he may receive votes from the part of the
voters, mainly intellectuals, who categorically oppose the
present-day authorities. They, however, are not consolidated and are
few in number.
e) Tigran Karapetyan: this candidate will attract the electorate
consisting of the elderly people for whom ALM TV Channel is the main
source of entertainment and information.
f) Levon Ter-Petrosyan: his electorate will consist of the voters
who held offices or posts under the former authorities, as well as
the intellectuals having ties with the Armenian pan-National Movement
and some of the members of the political parties supporting him.
We emphasize the last factor on purpose, since the fact that the
People’s Party of Armenia and its leader Stepan Demitchyan are
represented in Mr. Ter-Petrosyan’s camp guarantees no support by the
so-called `pro-Demirtchyan electorate’, who detached themselves from
Stepan Demirtchyan during the past parliamentary elections.
Consisting mainly of elderly people, this protestant electorate grew
like a snowball and swelled in 1998, expressing its protest against
the policy implemented under the rule of Mr. Ter-Petrosyan. So, it
can vote in favor of anyone, except L. Ter-Petrosyan, as the majority
of the representatives of the old generation became impoverished
during the years when this person was in power.
In fact, the pro-Opposition electorate became split and fractioned
to such an extent that Serge Sargsyan, the pro-Governmental candidate
may win on February 19, 2008, even if his electorate is limited to
those who voted in favor of the Republican Party and `Prosperous
Armenia’ during the parliamentary elections held on May 12, 2007.
While, as shown many a time by the results of the social polls,
the Prime Minister’s rating exceeds the percentage of the votes
received by the RPA, his party.

ARMEN TSATOURYAN