ARMENIA NOT LIMITED TO THE THEATRICAL SQUARE
Haroutyun Gevorkyan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily
Dec 11 2007
Armenia

Interview with GEVORK POGHOSYAN, Chairman of the Armenian Sociological
Association

"Mr. Poghosyan, to what extent is the nomination of 9 presidential
candidates consistent with the political domain? " "Georgia is also
in store of presidential elections in the near future. 13 candidates
have been nominated there, and this is too much even for a country
like Georgia; especially considering that Sahakashvily has greater
chances to be re-elected.

As to our country, 9 candidates have been nominated here, but I am
convinced that 2 or 3 pretenders will have their candidacies removed
by January 20, the deadline for the registration of the candidates,
or by February 9, the deadline for withdrawing the candidacies. In
other words, they will have satisfied their pretensions, together
with getting back the electoral pledge of 8 million Armenian Drams.

At this point, some clarifications are needed too. If the candidate
is not backed by some ponderous political force or organizational
structure or people capable of participating in all the electoral
processes in a proper manner, why is he nominated? It is also
conceivable that the rating, political argument and ideological
aptitudes are not enough for attaining a more or less tangible
political result. It is also required to have enormous financial
means and a team capable of working.

The pre-election campaign is a money-consuming process requiring
efforts. Each pretender has to consider whether he has relevant
means. If he is nominated without having such means, he will clearly
withdraw his candidacy sooner or later. Simply, politics is also a
game pursuing some goals, and the people nominating their candidacies
admit those game rules. Then, they try to add their 0.3 per cent to
the 40 or 50 per cent of votes received by somebody else and gain
some dividends. This is the reason that January 20 and February 9 are
marked as specific dates. This game becomes especially clear after
publicizing the results of numerous social polls."

"All the social polls reveal the same picture. What does it testify
to?"

"As shown by the analysis of the social polls, among the 9 candidates
running for presidency there are only 3 people capable of serious
electoral rivalry, with Prime Minister Serge Sargsyan, leader of the
Republican Party, being the undisputed top figure. He is followed
by Arthur Baghdasaryan, Head of "Rule of Law" party, and Artashes
Geghamyan, leader of "National Unity", both of them having a rating
twice as smaller.

Considering that Raffi Hovhannisyan was not nominated, this list
can, with great reservations, include the name of L. Ter-Petrosyan,
whose rating does not go beyond the limits 3 per cent. However, due
to various propaganda tools and press publications, there is such an
impression as though Levon Ter-Petrosyan were the chief rival of the
pro-Government candidate Serge Sargsyan. Whereas, in the rating list
the ex-President ranks as the fifth or sixth candidate.

The thing is simply that the first President’s return after the
9-year absence has aroused a certain interest. This is the intrigue,
since nothing new is expected from those ranking as second or third
candidates, i.e. Arthur Baghdasrayan or Artashes Geghamyan.

L. Ter-Petrosyan is currently the most active figure represented in
the pro-Opposition camp; this is why the press focuses on him.

However, interest in this particular candidate does not imply that he
enjoys an equivalent rating. In this respect, the invasion of social
culture in the political domain is quite natural. It is welcome that
this tool of measuring public opinion is being used effectively,
despite the fact that sociologists are constantly "bombarded" by
those political figures and forces that enjoy a low rating.