TURKEY: SEEKING AN OUTLET FOR EXPANSION

Stratfor
Dec 12 2007

Summary

Turkey is flexing its muscles as it seeks an avenue to expand.

Analysis

Turkish President Abdullah Gul arrived in Kazakhstan on Dec. 12
for a three-day visit primarily aimed at furthering Turkish business
interests in the region. The visit is symptomatic of a country seeking
an outlet for its rising power and ambition.

Turkey is a rising power economically, militarily and politically,
with an economy worth some $400 billion and the second-largest military
in NATO. Yet it is also a country rather conflicted about its place
in the world. Since the end of World War I the Turks have existed in
a sort of cultural limbo, shunning their Islamic and imperial past,
yet being denied full membership in the West in general, and the
European Union in specific.

Over the past decade, the Turks have come to terms with the idea
that they have made it as far into Europe as Europe will allow:
They enjoy a customs union with the European Union, an agreement
functionally equivalent to the U.S.-Mexico relationship via NAFTA. But
EU membership is out of the question. Now, they are casting about
for a new national goal.

The lands surrounding modern Turkey echo with the voices of Turkey’s
imperial past. All provide certain opportunities for the expansion of
Turkish influence, yet none of the options leap out as being obvious —
and none will be easy.

In Central Asia, cultural links to the region’s Turkic peoples may give
the Turks access — but the Russians have deeper and more recent ties,
while the Chinese are splashing around more money. The Balkans provide
Turkey a chance to leverage NATO links and cultural connections and
force the Europeans to treat them with respect, but ultimately it is
Brussels and Washington who most reliably shape events in Southeastern
Europe. Working in the Caucasus helps buffer Turkey against a resurging
Russia, but there is strong competition from not only Russia, but
also Iran and Armenia. The only reason Iraqi Kurdistan has proven
so hot-button in recent months is because the Turks perceive Kurdish
autonomy across their southern border as a direct threat to the unity
of Turkey itself. Like in its other spheres of potential interest,
Turkey has no particular advantage in operating to its south either.

Yet Turkish power continues to rise, and it is only a matter of
time before it seeks an outlet. Its economy has stabilized after
a 2001 crash, and has grown strongly ever since. The government is
consolidated under a single party to a degree absent since the time
of Kemal Ataturk. The military is strong, flexible and deployable.

This broad-spectrum strength allows Turkey to have its fingers in a lot
of different pots. The only thing lacking is a strategic decision by
the Turks about which direction is most important to Turkey. Once that
decision is made, there are no internal barriers to Turkish movement.

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