Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia
Dec 15 2007

FEAR OF WAR LEADS TO THREAT OF WAR

The OSCE Minsk Group has recently livened up its efforts as a
`mediator’, hurrying to coordinate the package on the fundamental
principles of conflict settlement. The Co-Chairs submitted the
package to the parties in the form of a written document at the
second round of the talks. Demonstrating undue assiduity on the eve
of the elections, the international community makes no attempt to
intervene in the internal political processes of Armenia. Political
scientist LEVON MELIK-SHAHNAZARYAN gives answers to our questions.

`Any state, especially a large empire, is always interested that
the government in this or that country be `fit’ for it. In this
respect, I consider it normal that the international community is
trying to produce some impact on our elections. It would be better if
we also had that opportunity and intervened, for instance, in the
presidential elections of the United States. It is natural that the
external powers are trying to somehow `participate’ in the upcoming
electoral process, and it is being done by all of them, including
Russia, the United States and separate European countries which
pursue certain interests in this region.
On the other hand, I believe in the sensibility of our people, and
I am sure that the liberal, anti-national and `cosmopolitan’ forces,
which unfortunately exist among the political circles supporting the
candidates, do not have any chances to obtain a serious percentage of
votes and earn our society’s vote of confidence. It would mean to cut
the branch we are sitting on and choose the path of
self-destruction.’
`Don’t you think that a country like Armenia requires no
large-scale `investments’ for creating a climate and changing the
ratio of forces?’
`Of course, the foreign `investments’ may impact the election
results to a certain extent, but I don’t think that such impact may
be decisive. Life shows that they do not usually meet their purpose
in our reality, i.e. these are wasted resources.
However, I am sure that the main factor is the people’s instinct
for self-preservation. Therefore, I don’t think that in some remote
village there will be some uncle Saghatel who will be ready to
endanger his grandchildren’s future in return for some 5000 Drams or
5 kilograms of rice.’
`How do you estimate the blackmail tactics of the International
Crisis Group? The ICG experts threaten that the war will be
inevitable in case the conflict is not settled in the near future.
Isn’t this a latent propaganda in favor of the candidate who
literally says the same things?’
`As a beginning, let’s note that the International Crisis Group
was set up in 1995 by the initiative of Assistant Secretary of State
Norton Abramovich. George Siros, an outstanding billionaire who is
from head to foot politicized, was the first person to provide
funding to the organization; and up to date, he has been its chief
fund-provider. These two names are enough for stating definitely that
this is an extremely politicized structure whose goal is not to
prevent conflicts or settle the existing ones. It has a goal to make
these conflicts serve the interests of the United States.
The ICG’s regular statement that the war will resume in case of
not settling the conflict in a speedy manner is already an obvious
bluff that concerns 2012. As to why 2012, it is because this year is
considered to be a `peak’ for Azerbaijan’s oil export. Thereafter,
the volumes of oil will start to decrease gradually.
The ICG does not consider or pretends to be unaware of the fact
that Azerbaijan controls only 13 per cent of the `Baku-Jeyhan’ oil
pipeline and oil income. The remaining 87 per cent belong to the
large international companies which present not only their but also
their own countries’ interests. There is even a well-known proverb
saying, `What is advantageous to `British Petroleum’ is also
advantageous to England’. It is obvious that any state which has
economic interests in Azerbaijan is not interested in resuming the
military operations and will do its best to prevent it from happening
at least till 2025.
This doesn’t mean that we should twiddle our thumbs. We must use
the years of peace to the maximum, to prevent Azerbaijan from making
any encroachment upon Karabakh or Armenia, and explain to the
international community that any encroachment may lead to a situation
when the Azerbaijani oil-wells will change into `funeral flames’.
There is one thing our people must know perfectly well: all the
eloquent speeches on `dignified peace’, the Pharisaic statements on
developing the human rights and civil institutions in the region with
the purpose of settling the conflict are paths leading to retreat.
We are perfect soldiers, but for some reason, we are afraid of
war. We have an efficient, strong army, but we all the time inspire
ourselves that we must avoid war at all costs. How many times can one
face genocide and not learn lessons. No, we must hold victory in the
war before it begins. The people who fear war are sure to come face
to face with the threat of war.

LILIT POGHOSYAN