PanARMENIAN.Net

Will the EU be able to solve the Kosovo issue with minimum losses?

Kosovo’s independence will lead to war, and most probably the cause of
war will be found in Mitrovitsa, the Serbian town in the north of
Kosovo.
20.12.2007 GMT+04:00

The discussions over the Kosovo issue in the UNO are over and as
expected the EU and the USA declared that the opportunities of solving
the issue of Kosovo’s status by means of negotiations are
exhausted. Russia, as always remained faithful to its opinion – the
negotiations should be continued. On December 19 after a
3-hour-close-session of the UN Security Council, the Belgian
Ambassador Johan Verbeke, speaking on behalf of the EU and the USA,
stated with regret that the Council couldn’t come to an agreement over
the future status of Kosovo, that is why the EU and NATO are ready to
take up the responsibility for the country’s destiny.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ At the same time he mentioned that the solution to
the issue of the status of Kosovo will be sui generis, i.e., unique,
and must not become a model for other situations. The Minister of
Foreign Affairs of Italy Massimo D’Alema, who is going to be in the
chair in the Security Council in December, declared that the members
of the Council `haven’t arrived at any concrete conclusions’, but have
called upon the parties `to keep the peace and desist from any
actions, which could endanger the security of the region.’

It’s hardly possible that the diplomats and officials are not aware of
the absurdity of such a decision, because the independent Kosovo will
become a model by its definition. One may refuse it as much as he
wants, but fact can’t be changed. Maybe that’s the reason why the USA
has decided to place the burden of the decision making on the EU. Yet
in Europe too there are a number of territories (Basques, Belgium, and
Romania with Hungary) which being inspired by a `bad’ example, will
follow the Kosovo Albanians. What if someone comes to think that
Corsica should be separated from France…? And the war will be
unleashed, after which there will be nothing left from Europe. When
Russia speaks against, it perhaps realizes better the consequences of
such a solution of the problem. The truth is though, that for Armenia
and Nagorno Karabakh the American-European variant is more preferable,
regardless what they say about the impossibility of the
precedent. According to the EU special representative to South
Caucasus Peter Semneby, the Kosovo decision may not serve as a model
for resolution of existing conflicts in post-Soviet areas. `On the
one hand the ongoing processes in Kosovo may effect the regulations of
the conflicts in the post-Soviet areas, since there are apprehensions
based on the preferences of the parties, on the other hand, there are
not,’ said Semneby.

Serbia makes use of every means, except the military ones, not to
allow a one-sided proclamation of independence of Kosovo by the
Albanian majority of the territory. This was announced by the Prime
Minister of Serbia Vojislav Kostunica after the session of the UN
Security Council on Wednesday, where the future status of Kosovo was
being discussed. Kostunica once again emphasized that the solution to
the problem must be found within the frames of the UNO. `Any attempt
of violating the international law is unacceptable. One-sided
proclamation of Kosovo independence with the assistance of western
countries will upset the principles stated in the UNO Charter, and
will become the beginning of a new era, where the power is above law,’
announced the Serbian Prime. In his turn, the President of Kosovo
Fatmir Sejdu reminded the events of 1990’s and added that `the
recollections of the slaughter of the Kosovo Albanians in those years
make the co-existence of Kosovo and Serbia in the frames of one state
impossible.’

`The new war in the Balkans is not far and it will start in
Mitrovitsa,’ announced the strategy expert from Texas University Alan
Cooperman. `Kosovo’s independence will lead to war, and most probably
the cause of war will be found in Mitrovitsa, the Serbian town in the
north of Kosovo, because the next day of the proclamation of the
sovereignty by the leaders of Pristine the ethnic Serbian police will
immediately change the Kosovo uniforms with the old uniforms of the
Serbian police, which they have been carefully keeping in their
closets throughout all this time,’ quotes the Italian magazine La
Stampa.

According to this scenario, the war will begin because the Albanian
militants in Kosovo won’t be able to put up with the fact that the
Serbian police will patrol a whole district of the new State. Not to
mention that Belgrade can direct its people and its measures to
Mitrovitsa and take all the water resources of the entire Kosovo under
its control.

The apprehensions of the USA connected with the fact that Mitrovitsa
may become the reason of a new conflict, became more reasonable after
the Government of Belgrade opened its representative office in the
center of the city on December 11. The representatives of the UN
Administration called the unexpected decision illegal and
inadmissible. However, the Serbian Minister Slobodan Samardzic
declared that `in case of one-sided proclamation of independence,
Serbia will legally and diplomatically defend own territory and the
rights of its nation to live within the borders recognized by
international law.’ In other the Serbian representation in Kosovo will
become the center of common legitimate power, which the Serbian police
will obey.

PanARMENIAN.Net» analytical department