ARMENIA: SMEAR TACTICS FEATURE PROMINENTLY IN EARLY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGNING
Haroutiun Khachatrian

EurasiaNet, NY
Jan 9 2008

With just under six weeks to go before Armenia’s presidential election,
the field of candidates is coming into sharper focus.

Overall, nine men are expected to battle for the presidency when the
campaign season officially gets underway January 21. But most experts
believe the race quickly will boil down to a contest between two men –
incumbent Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian and former president Levon
Ter-Petrosian.

The presidential vote is slated for February 19. Sarkisian has long
been viewed as the prohibitive favorite to follow outgoing President
Robert Kocharian, who is constitutionally barred from running for
reelection. The benefits of incumbency are clearly on Sarkisian’s
side, as his Republican Party won a landslide victory in the May 2007
parliamentary elections. [For additional information see the special
feature Armenia: Vote 2007]. Opinion polls have shown Sarkisian to
enjoy the support of roughly one-third of potential voters, enough
to give him a commanding lead over the other presidential hopefuls.

Artur Baghdasarian, the leader of the Orinats Yerkir (Land of Law)
Party, and Vahan Hovhannisian, Vice Speaker of the National Assembly
representing Dashnaktsutiun (the Armenian Revolutionary Federation),
trailed well behind Sarkisian with 13 percent and 6 percent support
respectively in the latest poll. Ter-Petrosian was among the six
presidential contenders whose polling numbers were running in the
low single digits. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Ter-Petrosian served as the first president of post-Soviet Armenia,
his tenure stretching from 1991-98. In February of 1998, he was
forced to resign amid a severe backlash to his suggestion that
Armenia make concessions to Azerbaijan in the still-stalemated peace
talks on Nagorno-Karabakh. [For background see the Eurasia insight
archive]. Ter-Petrosian’s successor, Kocharian, has governed since
then.

On the surface, judging by the numbers, it would seem that
Ter-Petrosian poses no threat to Sarkisian’s electoral chances. Yet,
it’s plainly evident that Sarkisian supporters within the government
see the former president as the most formidable opponent in the
field. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Ter-Petrosian and his aides, for instance, have been denied access to
most television channels. The one notable exception is Yerkir Media
TV, which is controlled by the Dashnak party.

At the same time, state-controlled media outlets have provided generous
amounts of air time to long-time political enemies of Ter-Petrosian,
including Vazgen Manukian, the leader of the National Democratic Party,
and Artashes Geghamian, the leader of the National Unity Party.

Privately operated television stations have generally followed the lead
of government-controlled channels. Campaign events organized by the
Ter-Petrosian camp have received scant media coverage, despite the fact
that several rallies have drawn tens of thousands of spectators. The
plainly evident media bias prompted two European officials — Terry
Davis, Secretary General of the Council of Europe, and Peter Semneby,
the EU’s special representative for the South Caucasus – to register
complaints. [For more information, click here].

If anything, Ter-Petrosian has received even rougher treatment from
some print media outlets. For example, the Hayots Ashkharh daily,
an officially independent newspaper with a decidedly pro-governmental
outlook, splashed two remarkable photo-montages across the front pages
of two editions in late December. In one, Ter-Petrosian is depicted
as wearing a traditional Turkish fez, a clearly derogatory image given
Armenia’s long-standing hostility with both Turkey and Azerbaijan. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In the second montage,
Ter-Petrosian’s Yerevan home is depicted as flying a Turkish flag
from a pole on its roof. The combined message of the two images was
unmistakable: a vote to return Ter-Petrosian to power would be a vote
to capitulate in Armenia’s ongoing diplomatic struggles with Turkey
and Azerbaijan.

Even in a fairer political environment, Ter-Petrosian’s candidacy
would face substantial challenges. Ter-Petrosian managed to generate
initial attention for his candidacy with a series of sharp attacks on
Kocharian’s administration. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. The task now will be to transform the disenchantment with
the Kocharian administration among a certain segment of the electorate
into genuine support for his own political program.

Although about two dozen political parties and civic organizations
have endorsed Ter-Petrosian’s candidacy — most of them relatively
small in numbers and in influence — it remains to be seen if he
can build an effective organizational network. "He carries the bad
heritage of the past … but he is a good speaker and has [lengthy]
experience," the Azg liberal daily summed up on December 25.

One thing that is working in Ter-Petrosian’s favor is the fact that
he is willing to operate within the existing political system, and
has not been an advocate of revolutionary change. This has enabled
him to cast himself as a political moderate. "There will be no
revolution. I’ll not allow violence and illegal actions from our side
" Ter-Petrosian told the Moscow-based Kommersant daily on December 6,
responding to the question about his possible actions in the event
of vote rigging by authorities.

Meanwhile, Kocharian’s fate after his departure from the presidency
remains a subject of widespread conjecture. Speculation is focusing
on the possibility of Kocharian and Sarkisian swapping places, with
the latter assuming the presidency and the former taking over as
prime minister. In October, Sarkisian denied such a possibility, but
a December 29 article published by the Haykakan Zhamanak newspaper,
citing "reliable sources," said that such an arrangement has indeed
been agreed upon.