RE-ELECTED, WITH SOME DIFFICULTY
by Ivan Preobrazhensky

What the Papers Say Part B
January 9, 2008 Wednesday
Russia

HIGHLIGHT: Georgia: election results and opposition protests; Mikhail
Saakashvili has been re-elected as president of Georgia. He got around
52% of the vote – that’s 44% less than in his first election.

The opposition is planning protests. The USA and the European Union
have recognized Georgia’s election as legitimate, while noting some
irregularities.

Mikhail Saakashvili has been re-elected as president of Georgia. He
got around 52% of the vote – that’s 44% less than in his first
election. The opposition is planning protests. The United States and
the European Union have recognized Georgia’s election as legitimate,
while noting some irregularities.

With vote-counting 95% complete, the Georgian Central Electoral
Commission (GCEC) reports that Saakashvili has 52% of the vote. The
runner-up is the united opposition candidate, Levan Gachechiladze
(25%); followed by Badri Patarkatsishvili (6.7%), Labor Party
leader Shalva Natelashvili (6.3%), David Gamkrelidze (3.91%), Georgy
Maisashvili (0.74%), and Irina Sarishvili (0.19%).

The opposition has called for a second round of voting and the
resignation of GCEC Chairman Levan Tarkhnishvili. Gachechiladze has
made election fraud allegations against Rustavi 2 Television, Mze
Television, and Public Broadcasting, claiming that they have denied
him the opportunity to address Georgian citizens in live broadcasts.

Imedi Television, the opposition channel that resumed broadcasting
on December 12, shut down again on December 26. The opposition is
promising hunger strikes and widespread protest rallies starting
January 13.

Observer opinions vary. The OSCE and the US Democratic Party’s National
Institute found some irregularities, but have recognized the election
outcome anyway. An observer mission from the International Expert
Center for Electoral Systems, consisting of observers from Britain,
America, and Israel, declined to recognize the Georgian election as
democratic: in some districts, voter turnout appeared to be over 100%.

The presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine were the first to
congratulate Saakashvili on his victory.

The Russian Foreign Ministry has expressed concern about the fate
of democracy in Georgia. In an official statement from the White
House, this election was described as Georgia’s "first competitive"
election. It has also been recognized by EU High Representative for
Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana and by Slovenia,
currently chairing the EU.

Georgian political analyst Ramaz Sakvarelidze agrees: "In all of
Georgia’s previous election campaigns, there was always a favorite
with a rating over 80%." Eduard Shevardnadze got over 80% of the
vote in 2000, and Saakashvili got 96.27% in 2004. This time, as
Sakvarelidze notes, it’s impossible to predict whether there will be
a second round of voting until vote-counting is officially complete.

GCEC figures show that support for Gachechiladze was strongest in the
major cities, while Saakashvili performed best in the regions and in
districts populated by ethnic Armenians and Azeris, who usually vote
for the incumbent authorities. Sakvarelidze points out that most
voters regarded Gachechiladze’s call for a parliamentary republic
as irrelevant, while Saakashvili focused his campaign on the idea of
fighting poverty. Saakashvili promised to clean up his administration
team, raised pensions in late December, and abolished a number of
fiscal requirements – for example, small business are now allowed to
operate without using cash registers.

Two referendums were held simultaneously with the presidential
election: on rescheduling the parliamentary elections from autumn to
spring of 2008, and on NATO membership for Georgia. Judging by exit
polls, both got a positive response from Georgian citizens: over 60%
supported joining NATO. Irina Sarishvili, the only presidential
candidate who opposed NATO membership, maintains that about 15%
of this result was falsified.

Ivan Safranchuk, World Security Institute: "Georgia is hoping to be
invited to join NATO this April, at the NATO summit in Bucharest. The
final decision hasn’t been made yet, but an invitation is unlikely."

NATO has three main membership criteria: rearmament to meet NATO
standards, public support expressed via procedures that meet democratic
standards, and territorial integrity. The first criterion is easy for
Saakashvili, and he has already fulfilled the second; but the third
criterion is problematic. As Safranchuk points out, NATO wouldn’t
want to take responsibility for the problem of re-integrating Abkhazia
and South Ossetia.

The winner comments on Russia

At a press conference yesterday, Mikhail Saakashvili said: "I think
it’s time to start seeking ways of repairing our severely damaged
relations with Russia. It doesn’t matter who is responsible for the
current state of affairs." Levan Koberidze, head of the Union of
Georgian Winemakers, said on January 7 that some proposals will be
sent to Moscow soon, aimed at bringing Georgian wines back to the
Russian market.