Lragir, Armenia
Jan 11 2008

THE BALLOON OF THE ARMENIAN ECONOMY

In an interview with the ARKA news agency the president of the
Central Bank revealed, maybe unintentionally, the misery of the
Armenian economy, although against the background of glamour.
However, Serge Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan need not reproach Tigran
Sargsyan in this pre-election stage for thoughtless judgments.
Firstly, Tigran Sargsyan is one of the few officials who could be
accused of anything except thoughtless judgments. With the ability to
think and to judge – the court of law is not meant – Tigran Sargsyan
differs from other representatives of the public administration.
Simply the activities of this system have created a situation when in
saying something you unintentionally reveal the balloon of the
Armenian economy, the most dangerous thing about which is that it is
blown from the outside.

If at least we blew the balloon of our economy, we would know the
degree we need and we would not blow it too big to burst, and our
facial expression would not turn into horror and fear, like the face
of the child who blows a balloon with a feeling of joy and pride as
it grows big, which turns into fear in a wink when the balloon
bursts, usually without a warning. Meanwhile, if our economy is blown
from the outside which Tigran Sargsyan confirms, saying that
remittances exceed one billion dollars, and will continue to grow
with a progressive dynamics, it is possible that they will go too
far, even not intentionally but out of mentality to which Tigran
Sargsyan also refers to. He says it is typical of the Armenian
mentality to invest more money in Armenia as they start earning more
abroad. The point is that this money is invested in households and
spent on daily expenses. In other words, when this type of investment
is moderate, it has a positive effect, but as soon as it is too big,
it may lead to cataclysms on the monetary market. The president of
the Central Bank must be aware of this. He must be also aware of the
losses of our citizens and producers due to the depreciation of the
dollar with the same progressive dynamic as the growth of the
remittances. And their growth is claimed to be one of the main
reasons for the depreciation of the dollar and the revaluation of the
dram.

And since, according to Tigran Sargsyan, we deal with the almighty
mentality, it is clear that even if an extra one dollar of the
remittance were destructive for Armenia, the relative living abroad
would nevertheless send it to the relative living in Armenia, because
he will take care of his relative rather than the state or the
society. Such is mentality and nothing can be done about it. In other
words, they will continue blowing the balloon. We only need to close
our ears not to go deaf or stop the blowing. However, in case of
stopping people will not afford to buy, which means the growth of the
economy based on imports and services will stop. And every reader
without any knowledge of economy can understand the consequences. In
that case, we will not be lost, and the country will not collapse, of
course, because the benefactors of our times will lend a hand to the
society. However, it is not clear who will lend a hand to our
benefactors, from whom or where they will draw immense profits
through raising prices and depreciating the dollar to give the crumbs
to the society.

JAMES HAKOBYAN