Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Jan 15 2008
Turkish-southern Caucasus regional relations in 2008
The presidential elections slated to take place in 2008 in the
southern Caucasus will be one of the most important topics on the
agenda for the coming year in the region. To wit, in Georgia, the
Jan. 5 presidential elections have already taken place. The guiding
forces in the election results in the southern Caucasus region is not
the actual votes of the citizens, but the expressed convictions of
the political administrations in power. In this sense, the upcoming
presidential elections in both Azerbaijan and Armenia are not
expected to bring about much in the way of significant changes to the
current political administrations. Within this framework, it is also
not anticipated that there will be any concrete developments as far
as Nagorno-Karabakh is concerned.
One of the most significant topics relating to Turkey’s affairs with
the southern Caucasus region is the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway
project. It is expected that in 2008 the Turkish stage of this
railway project will have its foundation laid and that construction
will begin shortly afterwards.
Some of the trade projections for 2008 include the foreign trade
volume between Azerbaijan and Turkey reaching $1 billion, while
Turkish investments are expected to be around $5 billion and
construction projects taken on by Turkish developers alone above $2
billion. As it stands in terms of imports, Turkey is number four for
Azerbaijan and number six in terms of nations to which Azerbaijan
exports. Turkey makes more non-petrol sector related investments in
Azerbaijan than any other nation in the world.
The likelihood that Kosovo will head toward independence in 2008 also
means that Abkhazia will increase its demands for independence in the
coming year. It also means that the Russian Federation may well
decide to recognize Abkhazia officially. This in turn could spark
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili — who emerged tattered and
torn from a recent presidential election — to use his country’s
strength against both Abkhazia and South Ossetia in order to shore up
power for his own administration.
Abkhazian leader Sergei Bagapsh is expected to visit Turkey sometime
during 2008, a visit which may well be coordinated to coincide with a
visit from Georgian leader Saakashvili. In 2007 the Georgian
leadership completed work on the most important leg of legislation
aiming to allow Ahiska Turks to return to their homeland in what is
currently Georgia. It is anticipated that this legislation will go
into implementation in 2008 and that, as such, the Ahiska Turkish
population will in fact begin to return.
In terms of foreign trade volume between Turkey and Georgia, it is
projected that for 2008, in the wake of a recently signed free trade
agreement between these two nations, trade volume could rise to above
$800 million, while the value of construction projects being
undertaken in Georgia by Turkish developers could exceed $500
million. Turkey has become, in recent years, the number four nation
in terms of investment in Georgia. Current Russian-Georgian tension
could also rise in the coming year with the help of the problems in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. An additional note is that Georgia is
expected to continue its efforts to enter NATO and its Membership
Action Plan (MAP).
In 2008, the individual analysis of Armenia, Turkish-Armenian and
Turkish-Armenian-Azeri relations could bring about the formation of
new diplomatic relations, though without the opening up of currently
sealed borders. On this front, it could well be anticipated that
efforts by the US Embassy in Ankara and by certain Turkish
intellectual circles may see a notable increase over the coming year.
The continuing negative stance by Armenia toward Turkey, combined
with its judgmental behavior, will likely block the serious formation
of diplomatic relations this coming year. In addition, the question
of Nagorno-Karabakh is one that concerns the entire international
community, as it relates to Armenia’s approach to international law
and respect for the principles of land unity. Turkey continues its
support for the Prague accords, which came about in 2004 under the
initiative of the Minsk Group co-leaders; this accord aims to find a
peaceful solution to the ongoing problem in the southern Caucasus as
it relates to Nagorno-Karabakh. Ankara, while hoping fervently for
the normalization, if possible, of relations with neighboring
Yerevan, is resolute in its determination not to take any steps until
it sees positive steps on this front from Yerevan itself.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress