What will the co-chairs say if Aliyev has already said no?

14-01-2008 12:29:40 – KarabakhOpen

The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group are visiting Armenia and
Azerbaijan. During their visit they will meet with the leaderships of
Armenia and Azerbaijan. The main topic will be the proposal on the main
issues of settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict offered to the
parties in Madrid. The co-chairs are also said to visit Stepanakert.
Before the visit some symptomatic statements were made by Yerevan and
Baku (Stepanakert is invariably silent) regarding the settlement.

`In Nagorno-Karabakh the criminal gang has seized the region, where an
unlawful regime of warlords dominates, and where no international
monitoring is held,’ the Izvestiya cites Ilham Aliyev, referring to
ITAR-TASS. Earlier the Azerbaijani president had stated in summing up
the passing year that he will not have `the creation of a new
Azerbaijani state in the territory of Azerbaijan.’ If the Armenians
want to build a state, they should leave Karabakh and build a state
outside the territory of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev said. Nobody accused
him of encouraging ethnic cleansing. On the contrary, everyone minded
his words.

The Armenian minister of foreign affairs Vardan Oskanyan appreciated
the foreign policy of Yerevan over the past decade in a news conference
after New Year, and among achievements mentioned that the idea of
`self-determination of the people of Karabakh’ was finally included in
the proposals of the co-chairs.

What does the idea of self-determination against the stiff stance of
Aliyev mean? What will the co-chairs be discussing during this visit if
Aliyev has clearly conveyed that there will be no concessions? One
thing makes worry ` whether what the Armenian prime minister said on
New Year’s Eve that Armenia will sign a document on the main issues
before the Armenian presidential election is true. Is the government of
Karabakh ready to sign such a document? And when did the people of
Karabakh tell Mr. Oskanyan `in a whisper’ that they agree with the main
issues?

The only argument for the likelihood of signing a document is that
geopolitical situation in the world relating to the recognition of the
unrecognized states. The acceleration of the settlement of certain
conflicts last year, namely Kosovo and Palestine, continues. The U.S.
President George Bush visited the Near East where he stated (and nobody
refuted) that the sides of the Palestinian conflict may reach agreement
before fall 2008. The Kosovo conflict is said to be solved in February,
as soon as Kosovo declares independence, and the United States and some
European countries recognize the new state.

In this context, it is not surprising that the sides of the Karabakh
conflict undergo pressure for a settlement. It does not mean, however,
that a definite scheme of resolution is imposed on them. The outside
forces will hardly impose a resolution of the conflict, they probably
ask to hurry. The rest depends on the strength, consistency and
diplomatic flexibility of the sides.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress