ANALYTICAL REPORT HIGHLIGHTS AZERBAIJAN’S ENERGY SIGNIFICANCE FOR WEST IN 2007
Turan News Agency
January 10 2008
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan’s growing geopolitical role and significance in diversifying
world energy markets became further visible in the year of 2007,
a think tank group affiliated with independent Turan news agency
has concluded. With fierce rivalry between the West and Russia,
Azerbaijan managed to initiate and carry out several crucial energy
projects to transport oil resources from the Caspian Sea basin to
energy markets, the analytical piece said. The report also found
out that the nuclear row between the USA and Iran bodes ill for
Azerbaijan because of the latter’s subtle geographical location and a
conflict with Armenia over Karabakh. According to the piece, Russia’s
neo-imperial ambitions are on the rise as it tries to regain lost
positions in the former Soviet backyard through energy sabotage and
re-igniting protracted conflicts. The year of 2007 saw progress in
the relations of the Turkic-speaking countries under the leadership
of Turkey, the piece noted. The following is the text of Turan report
on 10 January headlined "Foreign policy results of 2007"; subheadings
have been inserted editorially:
Rise in geopolitical significance
The year of 2007 was marked by sharp rise in significance of Azerbaijan
in terms of geopolitics, energy and communications, and, in particular,
its alternative (with regard to Russia) role for the West (the USA
and Europe).
The events of last year showed that the oil factor has now acquired the
highest priority across the world, and the attention of all leading
countries and organizations has again shifted to the energy issue,
at times, to the detriment of other important directions (environment,
democracy, culture and so on).
Throughout last year, the feverish interest in the energy carriers
and collisions of oil price policy were observed across the world,
and the escalation in the US-Iran tension continued with growing
confrontation in cooperation between the West and Russia.
All these, one way or another, were conducive to the reinforcement of
geopolitical struggle over the possession of the Caspian Sea energy
resources, rise in the strategic significance of this region and
growing the alternative (oil and transit) mission of Azerbaijan.
With the realization of the strategic Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline
and the completion of the work for the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas
pipeline, the struggle has entered a new intriguing phase by securing
the start of the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway,
bringing strenuously the idea of the "Transcaspian gas pipeline" to
the forefront, adding mighty impulse to various alternative projects
(NABUCO, Baku-Odessa-Brody).
So the geopolitical, energy, transport and communications game of the
West in the region, with blocking of the interests of Russia and, an
"alternative role-playing" of Azerbaijan, shifted to a new and more
global and active phase in 2007.
The implementation of these projects, no doubt, promises good
opportunities for Azerbaijan: it is hard to overestimate their
political significance for our country and the whole Caspian Sea
region. Actually, the country’s long-standing pro-Western strategy
has begun to bring real material benefits and acquire a certain
geopolitical immunity.
>From the economical point of view, the implementation of all these
energy projects give start to huge inflow of petrodollars and
investment in the country which opens up opportunities to intensify
development processes. But at the same time, all these also reinforce
real risks for the country to become a hostage to "oil card" and a
geopolitical duel between the West and Russia.
Dangers of 2007
Suffice it to list only several dangerous threats and tendencies which
became distinctly apparent in 2007 and have not been fully removed from
the agenda: a US threat of war against Iran. Both sides throughout
the year of 2007 were actively engaged in war preparations and this
factor kept the whole region in tension and exerted significant
influence on the whole foreign policy issues of Azerbaijan.
In case of war, it would be difficult for Azerbaijan to completely
secure itself against and remain its neutrality. Throughout the
year, Azerbaijan manoeuvred successfully, trying to avoid dangerous
extremes of real involvement in the anti-Iranian coalition and active
counteraction of the military plans of the USA.
The clash of interests of Russia and the USA on the "Iranian issue"
and the growth of the geo-strategic significance of Azerbaijan enabled
official Baku to pursue a successful game along all the directions
(northern, southern and western) without carrying it through the
necessity of a confrontational choice. It is noteworthy from this
point of view that the active diplomatic games around the US military
bases or the Qabala radar station were let drop.
Russia’s neo-imperial ambitions
– the rise in neo-imperial ambitions of Russia on the waves of sharp
growth of its energy pressure and the re-emergence of its imperial
policy across the world and the Caspian Sea. Throughout the year Russia
undertook active steps to block all "alternative" energy projects and
pro-Western integration tendencies in the countries of this region,
including Azerbaijan.
It is clear that Russia has yet no reason to resort to direct
pressure on Azerbaijan (as it is done with regard to Georgia). With
permission of the authorities, the process of peaceful and creeping
"re-occupation" of Azerbaijan’s economic, cultural and, in part,
political space by Russia is under way.
Supporting reactionary regimes actively, Moscow in response tries
to again create a basis for cultural-economic and military-political
presence in countries of the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia.
Backing the reaction, Moscow, in that way, shrouds its return in
reactionary (imperial) tone, which, in its turn, creates a real
threat for sovereignty, statehood and prospects of development of many
"stray" post-Soviet countries.
– "the Karabakh card" again threatens to become an instrument of
dangerous manipulation in the hands of competing superpowers with
the situation in Azerbaijan and in the region. The re-launched
active attempts of coercing Azerbaijan to defeatist peace or to the
"Kosovo model" of settling the conflict may have very dangerous and
unpredictable consequences.
In case official Baku agrees to a defeatist peace this may cause a wave
of public protest and gradually lead to protracted destabilization
of domestic political situation at home. In case of principled
refusal, it would lead to unavoidable paralysis and breakdown of the
negotiating process and growth in a temptation to a military solution
of the problem.
The resumption of the hostilities under the current indefinite
and perilous geopolitical background in the region is fraught with
unpredictable consequences.
The deepening vagueness and antipathy of the country’s foreign policy
course and the growth of negative tendencies and collusions in the
domestic policy arouse serious concern about Azerbaijan’s nearest
prospect.
It is incomprehensible where the country heads for, whose example
follows, how it is governed. The permanent hesitations and manoeuvres
between the West and East (in particular, between Washington and
Moscow), democracy and totalitarianism, neo-Sovietism and liberalism,
extreme and reforms, a sovereign and "banana role" have anyway already
weakened the "immune system" to the highest degree and mobilizational
capacities of the public and the state. The strengthening syndrome of
haphazard governing of the state in the situation of the growth of the
foreign policy threats forebode very dark prospects for the country.
Fruitful year in Azerbaijani-Turkish relations
The year 2007 turned out to be very intensive and productive in
the Azerbaijani-Turkish relations and wider in the context of the
overall integration of the Turkic states. The matter is even not
in the number of summits and meetings at the highest level but in a
qualitative breakthrough in cooperation of the Turkic states under
active patronage of the renewed political leadership of Ankara.
By virtue of latest impetuous strengthening of geo-strategic, energy
corridor and military-economic potential, Turkey has transferred into
a mighty factor of influence in the region and started to carry out
more independent and active policy in all directions, including in
the issues of integration of the Turkic-speaking world.
The 11th congress of the Turkic states and societies is noteworthy
in this regard. Although this imposing forum was held in Baku for
the first time, it actually "proceeded" from dictation of Ankara to
which testify not only bold integration "directives" of the congress
but also Turkey’s active role in the issue of quickest implementation
of these decisions into life.
Turkey, which pretends realistically to the role of the main regional
power, is fairly very keen on forming around itself a strong and
solid bloc of the Turkic-speaking countries.
The implementation of Turkey’s plans for the integration of the
Turkic-speaking countries, possessing advantageous geographical,
transit, communications and energy opportunities, are able to change
the geopolitical balance of forces throughout the whole region of
the Black and Caspian seas and have a significant influence on the
course of the political and economic processes across the world.
This impartially is in the interest of the Turkic-speaking states.
Undoubtedly, Azerbaijan, which has both close historic, ethnic,
cultural, socio-economic ties and also close geopolitical and energy
partnership relations with Turkey, can play an important role in the
implementation of those plans.