What the Papers Say Part A (Russia)
January 24, 2008 Thursday

TRIO’S TRIP TO CAUCASUS

by Yuri Roks

THE EUROPEAN UNION WILL STUDY THE STATE OF AFFAIRS WITH NEIGHBORLY
RELATIONS AND CONFLICTS IN THE CAUCASUS; Azerbaijan, Armenia, and
Georgia expect a visit from senior EU officials.

Foreign ministries of all three countries EU officials intend to tour
attach a lot of importance to the visits. Vladimir Karapetjan, press
secretary of the Foreign Ministry of Armenia, even assumes that EU
Envoy Peter Semneby might come.

Importance is attached to the forthcoming visits in connection with
the second round of the presidential election in Serbia which may
become a prelude to the process of international recognition of
Kosovo’s sovereignty. Torn by territorial conflicts, countries of the
southern part of the Caucasus hope to have some questions answered in
the course of the visits.

No matter how hard the West is trying to convince everyone that the
Kosovo solution will set no precedents for other regions, Azerbaijan
and Georgia remain understandably upset. Fiercely pro-Western Tbilisi
even supports Russia’s objections to recognition of Kosovo as a
sovereign state. "Sovereignty of Kosovo will become a stimulus for
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. What really counts, however, is that the
West is guarantor of Georgia’s territorial integrity," Paata
Zakareishvili of the Center for Development and Cooperation (Tbilisi)
said.

The situation with Azerbaijan and Armenia is somewhat different.
Georgia lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia due to internal discord, but
the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has always been international.
Azerbaijani-Armenian negotiations have nothing to show for the
effort, and some experts ascribe it to the absence of
Nagorno-Karabakh itself, a region demanding sovereignty, from the
process. OSCE Minsk Group French Chairman Bernard Fassier supports
this point of view. After almost a week spent in Baku, Yerevan, and
Stepanakert in the middle of January, Fassier suggested that
participation of Nagorno-Karabakh in the talks might help.

"Europe’s interest in Azerbaijan comes down to the problem of energy
security," political scientist Rasim Musabekov said. "As for
Nagorno-Karabakh, the EU is not directly involved in the crisis
resolution effort. Moreover, it is highly unlikely to want the
burden. The European Union does, however, support the OSCE Minsk
Group and would dearly like to see some progress made."

"Trust the West to try and keep the situation here in a suspended
state," Stepan Grigorjan of the Regional Cooperation Center (Yerevan)
said. "The Western community claims that Kosovo is unique and that it
is wrong to view the Kosovo solution as a precedent for other
region." The political scientist suspects that Europe might suggest
some kind of document specifying organization of a referendum on
Nagorno-Karabakh and its status, say, a decade from now.

Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, January 24, 2008, p. 7