OSCE ENVOY URGES ARMENIANS TO MAKE INDEPENDENT DECISION IN POLLS

Mediamax
Feb 4 2008
Armenia

An OSCE envoy has urged voters in Armenia to make an independent
decision during the forthcoming presidential election in this
country, not influenced by opinions polls. Following his meetings
with local presidential candidates, the head of the OSCE long-term
observation mission, Geert-Hinrich Ahrens, said that the role of the
media ahead of the polls is "maybe not so decisive" in Armenia as
it is in Germany. The following is the text of report in English by
private Armenian news agency Mediamax; subheadings have been inserted
editorially:

4 February: Exclusive interview with the head of the long-term
observation mission [to monitor the 19 February presidential election]
of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR)
in Armenia, Ambassador Geert-Hinrich Ahrens, to Mediamax news agency.

Armenia interested in "good reputation" after election

[Mediamax] Mr. Ambassador, I know that you have great work experience
in the former Yugoslavia and the Balkans. In fall of 2004, you headed
the OSCE observation mission during the elections in Ukraine. Would
you, please, tell us whether you see any trends, related to elections,
which are characteristic of the states of the former Soviet camp?

[Ahrens] What I see is a certain difference between Yugoslavia on one
side and the former Soviet Union on the other. Somehow in Yugoslavia
development has gone relatively far. I was the head of the observation
mission in Serbia a year ago and there we could say that the elections
met OSCE standards, which is a very positive statement.

On the other hand, on the side of the former Soviet Union there were
also countries that have made great progress, for example, the Baltic
States. I have not been in these states myself, but I know that the
situation there is quite good.

I always hesitate a little bit in comparing different countries too
closely, because each country has a different set of conditions, under
which it conducts the elections. And that is also true for Armenia. I
mean if you look at the external situation, you have four neighbors,
with one there is a ceasefire line, with another one there is a closed
border, then there is Georgia and Iran. And you are certainly very
interested in coming out of these elections with a good reputation
that Armenia was able to conduct good election that meets the OSCE
standards. And I think internally this would also be very important.

The president, the Armenian government and many officials have given
their assurances that this will happen, but of course, we will have
to compare the factual development of events with the OSCE standards.

What we have seen so far is in the interim report, much as a first
report, that is always highly descriptive, but I would rather look
at Armenia as a case just for Armenia, and not as a typical case of
the post-soviet area, because you really have differences.

You mentioned Ukraine in 2004, it was a totally different situation,
and also a very different country, because of this strong East-West
difference inside one country, which you do not have here.

Major concern over election day, following night

[Mediamax] On 30 January, the first interim report of your Mission was
published. How righteous is the impression that the basic concern of
the Mission is related to the non-balanced coverage of the candidates
by broadcast media before the start of the official campaign?

[Ahrens] I would not say that this is the basic concern, but this is
one concern, which we could express on the basis of facts, which we
have established ourselves and with the head of our media monitoring
unit, so that we were able there to base our statement on what we
had seen ourselves.

I will not hide from you that there is also quite a big concern on
election day and the night after the election counting, tabulation,
but not in a sense that I now expect irregularities, I cannot predict
anything, but normally the election day and the day after the election
is half the election, and we will see how that will develop.

And we have of course mentioned that there were quite a few stories
which we hear about certain beliefs and a very low degree of confidence
in the elections, so that I have in my talks with the government and
also election administration structures said that one might do a little
bit more particularly as regards the protection of the secrecy of the
vote. It seemed to me quite a few people in this country believe that
somehow others can control how they vote.

Media’s role "not so decisive"

[Mediamax] During your first news conference in Yerevan you said
that "media sometimes play a decisive role in securing democratic
elections". How applicable that notion is for today’s Armenia?

[Ahrens] Well, this again is country specific. I would say that
in countries, like my own Germany, the role of the media cannot be
overestimated. It is very great. Here in Armenia it is still very
important, but maybe not so decisive, at least that is what some of
the candidates themselves have told us. They did not think that the
media situation is their greatest concern in the election campaign.

[Mediamax] What is your assessment of how responsible the Armenian
presidential candidates carry out the campaign? What is your assessment
of the statement of one of the candidates, according to which in case
the given candidate is elected, Armenia will choose the "salvation
path", and in case another candidate wins the elections – the "path
to inevitable catastrophe"?

[Ahrens] In the West, when you have election campaigns, you hear a
lot of things, and campaign is campaign, that goes sometimes very
far, so that I think a high degree of tolerance in principle is
necessary. Of course, we do observe also the conduct of the elections
by the election headquarters of the different candidates, but will
certainly not now give any notes to how the candidates have so far
conducted the campaigns, but of course, there are certain rules that
should not be overlooked.

"Too early" to say if authorities sincere in promise of free election

[Mediamax] How sincere are the authorities in their statements on the
striving to hold free and democratic elections? The opposition argues
that the authorities have already started using administrative resource
to secure the victory of their candidate in the first very round.

[Ahrens] I mean you have now defined the whole task. And we are working
on it. It is too early to say something about it. I just told you
that the government made these assurances and they have an interest
in good elections, on the other hand we hear a lot of criticism from
candidates to different degrees, some candidates more than others,
but this is now our task to measure the elections up to the OSCE
commitments and see how far one or the other is right.

[Mediamax] Head of pre-election staff of presidential candidate
[and Orinats Yerkir Party leader] Artur Baghdasaryan stated that
she regularly hands over to your Mission facts of violation of the
electoral legislation. Would you be able to share with us information
on some of those facts?

[Ahrens] I have met Mr. Baghdasaryan yesterday [31 January 2008] and
we had a very interesting conversation and we have asked him if he has
also criticism against the conduct of the elections, that he should,
please, let us know, and what we always need is evidence. We cannot
act on just some stories or rumors or sometimes we are being told
not necessarily by Mr. Baghdasaryan, also from others that the people
are not prepared to give evidence, because they are afraid to do so.

But this makes for us difficult and I indeed have asked Mr.

Baghdasaryan to provide us with evidence cases, if there are any,
but right now I could not give you any such cases, because we are
just in contact about this. He mentioned certain things, but the
point for us is that we have to verify them.

Urging voters to make independent decision at election

[Mediamax] Some of the candidates crossly react to the data of the
polls, which are carried out regularly by Gallup on the order of
USAID. What is your attitude towards those surveys? Do they contribute
to the process of holding free and fair elections, or maybe they are
creating an atmosphere of additional mistrust between the society
and the candidates, and among the very candidates?

[Ahrens] This has to do with the attitude of the individual voter
towards the elections, for example, in my own country, if I see in
an opinion poll certain percentages for certain parties, I would
not change my decision anyway. And then, there is of course always
this possibility of the accusation that such opinion polls might
be manipulated, or very often, exit polls, are being criticized
and such points of view, I myself am not in a position to assess
the scientific reliability of the opinion poll you might refer to,
but at least I would advise every voter in this country to make his
decision independently of such opinion polls, because voting is a
question of conviction and I would not change my conviction if I hear
that another candidate has more to expect than one of his competitors.

It is important to "hear the other side" too

[Mediamax] Does the OSCE Observation Mission follow the law observance
only by the authorities, or by all the candidates? What is reaction in
cases, when the actions of a certain candidate violate the law? For
instance, the supporters of one candidate a few days ago held an
unapproved car-rally with the participation of over 100 cars in the
center of Yerevan and they refused to obey the orders of the policemen.

[Ahrens] In such cases we also first try to establish the facts. I
was today [1 February] received by the Mayor of Yerevan and I asked
him a few questions about this. Particularly whether there had been
an application for this sort of procession, when you go with cars,
and he said that there was no such application. I am a lawyer myself,
and there is a famous principle for lawyers – always to hear the other
side. I have not yet talked with Mr. Ter-Petrosyan’s headquarters
about this rally. But of course there are certain rules, by which
also candidates have to play, and I cannot say on the base of what
I know now whether they have been violated or not.

Election observation missions should be long-term ones

[Mediamax] Mr. Ambassador, despite the good assessments of the past
parliamentary elections [12 May 2007], in fall of 2007 Armenia joined
the initiative of Russia, the essence of which was the proposal on
reducing the authority of OSCE/ODIHR observers. There is an opinion
that this fact may somehow influence your assessment of the upcoming
elections. How righteous is this opinion?

[Ahrens] No, it will certainly not. First of all, I myself am not an
employee of ODIHR, because I am one on the list of specialists, should
I say diplomats, who could be called upon to lead such a mission like
this one, and it is up to ODIHR to call upon us and I can say yes or
no. I am a retired German Ambassador and my career is anyway over and
I am very independent. I am personally convinced of the principles,
correctness of the ODIHR approach and the ODIHR methodology for
election observation. One thing is clear, you have to have a long-term
observation. You cannot just come three days before the election
and then pass a judgment. That would not be serious. And secondly,
you have to have a number of observers that somehow corresponds to
the size of the country. And I mean, here in Armenia, we have 1,923
polling stations and we will have probably 250 short-term observers,
plus ourselves, so that it makes altogether maybe 300 or something
like that. This would of course by far not cover everything, but we
can at least go to certain spots, and try to find out beforehand,
where it would be particularly appropriate to go and see certain
areas which have a certain reputation that they might need some more
observation than others. And I think this is necessary.

And there is one more point: the first assessment given the day after
the elections. I think it is necessary, because otherwise you would
have a cacophony of many different voices. We try to come and we
always came to a unified statement by this mission, and the three
parliamentary delegations from the Council of Europe, OSCE and the
European Parliament, which would then give a preliminary assessment.

But this is of course a preliminary statement.

And I would try to make this very clear, because, as I said, half
of the way is the election day and the night after the election,
and reports are coming in all night. So, maybe certain developments
have not yet been observed, when we come up with the preliminary
statement. So, I have a certain tendency of making very clear that it
is preliminary, not doing it to early in the day and also be cautious,
because one might have to adapt it to later findings and we always
have the possibility of having another report before we do two months
after the elections the final report, which is a possibility, but I
would prefer to avoid that and come up with something that can stand
beyond the day after the elections.

Armenian election not to be assessed under influence of Georgian events

[Mediamax] Despite all the differences, it is obvious that the
recent elections in Georgia, which were far from being ideal, will be
considered a precedent for Armenia. The authorities, for example, may
state that, as opposed to Georgia, in Armenia TV-Companies were not
closed. Besides, [Georgian President Mikheil] Saakashvili’s victory
with minimal advantage in the first round will also be used as a
precedent. Maybe the international community should have reacted to
the violations during the elections in Georgia more strictly to rule
out the establishment of such a precedent?

[Ahrens] What I just told you about what my ideas are about our
preliminary statement the day after the elections. It also takes
into consideration certain developments that might have taken place
in Georgia. I was not in Georgia, I have not observed these elections.

But I think it would be wrong to look too much to that one election
in Georgia. I myself have observed two elections in Azerbaijan and
one in Georgia, more than a year ago, that was the local elections,
when already a little bit you could see certain developments, but
I would certainly not be influenced in assessment of these Armenian
elections by Georgian events.

My method is that I have always tried to be careful not to forget
that the first statement is preliminary, not to go over the top by
saying something. I think we should not look too much to Georgia and
one would also have to see how these different statements came about.

Election monitors bear "heavy responsibility"

[Mediamax] You have been here for already 20 days, a little more than
2 weeks are left before the start of elections. I assume that you
came to this country with positive expectations. So, not [as given],
if you compare those expectations with the ones you have now, do you
see any change in your moods regarding the quality of the elections?

[Ahrens] Not really. What I see very positively is, first of all, the
team, which we have here, and the Armenian colleagues, whom we have
here, they are all very good and they understand what this mission
is about. This is not something which goes by itself. It shows a high
degree of awareness also.

This is one point. The second point is that our working conditions
are good, so that you feel that you are being accepted as a mission.

It is of course clear, that all of those players have certain
expectations, and the government would only be too happy if the we
come up with a report that says there was rather progress, and some
opposition figures might be very angry if we overlook certain things
that may have indeed happened. And this puts a heavy responsibility
on us, and that is why I think it is very good to move cautiously
and only to take up points that we have seen ourselves, or that we
have seen proofs, but that we will do when we do well our job.