VOTES THAT ARE DIVIDED AND ARE NOT DIVIDED
by Karen Kocharyan
168 Zham
Jan 29 2008
Armenia
Of course, there will be shifts in ratings [of candidates] during the
presidential campaign in the Republic of Armenia. However, one month
envisaged for the election campaign is very short time to achieve
radical changes in the electorate’s opinion with regard to various
candidates. Moreover, all candidates have efficient propaganda and
anti-propaganda tools in their arsenal. [Passage omitted: election
tricks which can be used during the campaign]
What will be the outcome of the presidential election in the Republic
of Armenia, and particularly in Yerevan and the regions? Usually the
regions mostly vote for the candidate of the authorities (all elections
in the Republic of Armenia since the independence have demonstrated
this), and the votes of the capital’s population are usually split
between an opposition candidate and a candidate from the authorities.
Votes will be mostly split in Yerevan
The struggle for votes of the electorate is in full swing now. All
possible and impossible methods are being used, campaigners even
use the names of [US President George] Bush and [Russian President
Vladimir] Putin.
At least six out of nine presidential candidates say that they will
win. Such statements are of course aimed at influencing their own
teams psychologically. [Passage omitted on experience of elections
in Georgia and Russia]
As experienced politicians, they understand very well that they
are rather weak in the regions. Especially in the former industrial
cities – [second city of] Gyumri, [third city of] Vanadzor, Hrazdan
[administrative centre of Kotayk Region], Charentsavan [town in
Kotayk Region], Abovyan [town in Kotayk Region], Gavar [administrative
centre of Gegharkunik Region], Kapan [administrative centre of Syunik
Region], Kajaran [town in Syunik Region]. This is natural because all
major industrial enterprises in these cities were privatized during
[ex-President] Ter-Petrosyan’s time, and then came to a standstill for
known reasons, and thousands of people became unemployed as a result.
It is already not important for them what was Ter-Petrosyan’s personal
guilt in this process. This was obvious during Ter-Petrosyan’s visits
to Hrazdan and Charentsavan, after which, according to well-informed
sources, the presidential candidate expressed extreme dissatisfaction
with the work of his [election] headquarters in the mentioned cities.
[Passage omitted on Russian media reports on Armenian election]
The situation seems to be not that hopeless for the opposition in
Yerevan. However, the question is what opposition force can pin
hopes on the capital? The election practice in the newest history of
the Republic of Armenia showed that when opposition does not have a
single candidate, the votes of the pro-opposition electorate always
split between these opposition candidates. These election will not
be an exception either.
Especially, if we take into account that even the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation – Dashnaktsutyun, which is part of the
authorities, has been pretending to be an opposition force, I believe,
this will increase the number of their stable electorate.
The parliamentary election in 2007 was a manifestation of this.
Given that the list of opposition candidates include [leader of
the Orinats Yerkir party] Artur Baghdasaryan who preaches populism,
[leader of the National Democratic Union] experienced Vazgen Manukyan,
[owner of ALM Holding] Tigran Karapetyan, [leader of the National
Unity Party] Artashes Geghamyan who never joins the opposition, one
can surely say that Ter-Petrosyan’s chances in the capital Yerevan,
to put it mildly, are quite unclear.