BRITISH EXPERT: KOSOVO MODEL MAY BE APPLIED TO KARABAKH
PanARMENIAN.Net
06.02.2008 16:34 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Anatol Lieven, British policy analyst and chairman
of International Relations and Terrorism Studies at King’s College
London, doubts that Kosovo’s independence will not be precedent for
other conflicts.
"Kosovo and Nagorno Karabakh are different conflicts, but what happens
in one region will have a certain effect on what happens in the other",
Anatol Lieven,
Lieven believes that the Kosovo model can be applied to the Nagorno
Karabakh conflict. "Why not? It is easy to say that things are
specific, but it depends who is doing the talking. Everybody tries
to make up different rules, different cases. But in fact, it does
set a precedent", said the British analyst.
"I don’t believe that Russia will back Karabakhi Armenians. But they
will undoubtedly be encouraged by Kosovo’s independence", he said.
Commenting on Russia’s hindering the determination of the final status
of Kosovo and supporting regimes in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Mr
Lieven said there were two main reasons for it. "Firstly, Abkhazians
and Ossetians are Northern Caucasian nations to whom the Russians are
tied very closely. And certainly they do not want any more trouble
in the North Caucasus.
Secondly, Russians have come to absolutely detest the Georgians and
are not going to do anything for them, whereas Russia, of course,
has been trying to build good relations with Azerbaijan. That is
the explanation", he said. Analyzing the difficulties western powers
face in balancing people’s aspiration for independence with a wish
to maintain the territorial integrity of existing states and preserve
regional stability, Mr Lieven said it would partly depend on further
developments.
"If Kosovo secedes successfully and more or less peacefully, then,
no doubt, the U.S. policy will score a victory. If the independence
of Kosovo leads to more serious fighting with Serbia and a possible
overspill of Albanian separatism into Serbia itself and then towards
Macedonia, then of course, the entire U.S.
policy towards the region, and ever since 1999 and the Kosovo war,
will be seen as a disaster. But we do not yet know what will happen",
the expert said, Trend reports.
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