KARABAKH AGAIN THE FOCUS OF FOREIGN POLICY
By Fariz Ismailzade

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Feb 7 2008

After rather a calm year in 2007, conflict over Karabakh is once
again emerging as a primary foreign policy focus in both Armenia and
Azerbaijan. Last year, Azerbaijani and Armenian politicians, as well
as international mediators, struggled to find a breakthrough in the
peace talks over the ongoing conflict for control of the region but
achieved few results.

Several factors have blocked a resolution, including the May 2007
parliamentary election in Armenia. International actors and local
policymakers were distracted by the political unrest in Georgia,
the U.S.-Russia talks on the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan, and
the launch of the Baku-Kars-Akhalkalaki railway. Thus, the Karabakh
conflict was put on the backburner, although both the presidents and
foreign ministers of the warring states met on numerous occasions to
continue the dialogue.

The year 2008, however, started with some real efforts to finalize the
talks. On January 21, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov
published an op-ed, "The Caspian Moment," in the Wall Street Journal in
which he argued that it is high time to resolve the Karabakh conflict
and that any further delay in the negotiations will negatively hurt
regional oil and gas projects, damage the region’s business climate,
and obstruct much-needed collaboration in the fight against terrorism,
transnational threats, and environmental dangers.

Ilgar Mammadov, an independent political expert in Baku, believes
that the government is sending signals that it would like the West to
pressure Armenia in exchange for Azerbaijan’s possible membership in
NATO. In an interview with Azadliq radio, Mammadov argued that the
recent challenges to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili showed
that Tbilisi’s pro-Western policies will continue and will eventually
lead to Georgia becoming a NATO member (Azadliq, January 21).

Azerbaijan, Mammadov believes, will have to make a choice at some
point to join this trend or not. Thus, Azerbaijan seems to be asking
for more help on the Karabakh conflict in exchange for eventually
choosing Brussels instead of Moscow.

According to local pundits, there is another reason for the emergence
of Karabakh as a major bargaining topic in 2008. Both countries have
presidential elections scheduled this year (Armenia on February 19
and Azerbaijan October 15), and Western powers reportedly hope to seal
some sort of written agreement, even if merely a framework, before the
voting takes place. It is not a secret that the Western governments are
putting pressure on the political leadership in both Baku and Yerevan
to find areas for compromise. In the case of Armenia, these pressures
are also associated with the possible transfer of power from President
Robert Kocharian to his designated successor, Prime Minister Sergei
Sarkisian. If the political regime in Yerevan agrees to make painful,
but much needed concessions at the negotiating table, the West would
be more inclined to support such an orchestrated transfer of power,
in order not to jeopardize these fragile achievements.

Meanwhile, Slovenian Foreign Minister Dmitrij Rupel, who is
currently the acting chairman of the European Union, visited Baku on
February 4 and met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Benito
Ferrero-Waldner, EU Commissioner for External Relations, also took
part in the talks. Both sides discussed the ever-growing relations
and partnership between the EU and Azerbaijan and praised the
recent opening of an EU office in Baku. They also discussed the
Karabakh conflict. According to the Day.az website, Rupel declared,
"We hope that the presidential elections will not negatively affect
the peace process. We would be pleased if both sides came to an
agreement" (Day.az, February 4). Ferrero-Waldner added, "The sides
must understand that the soonest resolution of the conflict will lead
to the development of both countries with high rates."

APA news agency reported that the Special Representative of the OSCE
Acting Chairman Andrzej Kasprzyk had stated that the OSCE Minsk group’s
co-chairs would present a new proposal to Azerbaijan and Armenia after
the OSCE’s acting chairman, Finnish Foreign Minister Ilk Kanerva,
visits the region (APA, February 4).

Despite the recent momentum in the talks, realists believe that
nothing tangible will emerge due to Russia’s tough position in the
Caucasus and the widening gap between the public and political
leadership in both Armenia and Azerbaijan regarding the ways to
solve the conflict. Writing in European Voice, Sabine Frasier of the
International Crisis Group warned that the war might resume in 2012,
when Azerbaijan’s ongoing military buildup should reach sufficient
levels (European Voice, January 31).