TWO PUBLIC OPINION POLLS GIVE PRIME MINISTER HUGE LEAD
ARMENPRESS
Feb 06 2008
YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 6, ARMENPRESS: Head of a local polling and research
center unveiled today the findings of another of public opinion surveys
which found that nearly half of eligible Armenians have made a final
decision on who to vote for in the February 19 presidential election.
Aharon Adibekian, head of Sociometr center, said this figure was
derived from a comparative analysis of six surveys conducted late
last and this year.
Speaking at a news conference Mr. Adibekian, whose surveys have been
criticized by opposition as lacking credibility, ‘because they are
commissioned by the government", said 12 percent of voters are still
swinging and 11 percent did not wish to reveal the name of their
candidate. Therefore, said Adibekian, it appears that some 68 percent
of eligible voters are expected to go to the polls. The voter turnout
in regions beyond Yerevan is expected to be even higher.
Some 25 percent of respondents are not interested in politics at all
and in all likelihood they will boycott the February 19 ballot. Four
percent of Armenians cited their fundamental opposition to national
elections and will ignore the ballot too while three percent are
still undecided about their participation.
According to Aharon Adibekian, 67 percent of those who have made a
final decision, who make 45 percent, will vote for prime minister
Serzh Sarkisian, 13 percent for a former parliament chairman Arthur
Baghdasarian, 11 percent for ex-president Levon Ter-Petrosian,
five percent for a deputy parliament chairman Vahan Hovhanesian,
2 percent for Vazgen Manukian and 1 percent for Artashes Geghamian,
Three other candidates-Arman Melikian, Tigran Karapetian and Aram
Harutunian will get each less than 1 percent.
Aharon Adibekian said based on these figures there is a very little
probability of a run-off because, according to his calculations,
even if the swinging segment who are 16 percent, votes for opposition
candidates that would not affect the final results.
He said even if two or more opposition candidates decide to team up
and contest the election with one joint candidate that would neither
impede prime minister to win the election outright as overall the
opposition would garner less than 30 percent of all votes.
Aharon Adibekian further said the poll showed that ex-president Levon
Ter-Petrosian ‘enjoys’ the highest negative popularity rating of almost
40 percent while prime minister Sarkisian’s negative reputation rating
is 9 percent. That of Arthur Baghdasarian is 3 percent.
The poll also revealed that 73 percent of residents receive related
information from TV channels. The second important source of
information are routine conversations and rumors.
Today were unveiled also findings of another public opinion poll that
was commissioned by the government-controlled Public TV and Radio
Council to a British Populus research center. The field work was
done by the Armenian Sociological Association, also criticized by the
opposition, on Januarys 21-29 among 1,500 respondents and according
to its chief, Andrew Cooper, the Armenian poll has a margin of error
of 2.6 percent.
According to the Populus poll, 50.7 percent of respondents will vote
for Serzh Sarkisian, 13.4 percent for Arthur Baghdasarian and 12.6
percent for Levon Ter-Petrosian. Vahan Hovhanesian will get almost
8 percent of the vote.
The Populus poll also revealed that 56 percent of Armenians will
go to polling stations on the voting day. Also 57 percent think
that Armenia is on the right track. Most optimistic in this sense,
according to Cooper are young people. Fifty-four percent of people
aged 18-34 believe their and their families’ living standards would
improve in the next 12 months.
The survey also revealed Armenians’ treatment of foreign counties
and international organizations.
Thus, 88 percent named Russia as Armenia’s most reliable partner,
which is followed by France (70 percent) and the EU (63 percent).