Public TV, Armenia
Feb 6 2008
ARMENIAN PREMIER LEADS IN PRE-ELECTION POLL HELD BY BRITISH FIRM
[Presenter] If a presidential election was to be held in Armenia
tomorrow, 50.7 per cent of respondents would votefor [Armenian
presidential candidate from the ruling Republican Party of Armenia
and Prime Minister] Serzh Sargsyan,which is more than the number who
would vote for all other candidates altogether.
This information was published by a leading British opinion poll
organization, the Populus, which has seriousexperience of holding
accurate opinion polls concerning elections. For instance, during a
survey held ahead of anelection in the United Kingdom the company’s
average error was just 0.25 per cent. In Armenia, the Populus carried
out opinion polls between 21 and 29 January among 1,500 residents at
the order of the Armenian Public TV and RadioCompany. Nune Aleksanyan
reports on the results of the survey.
[Correspondent] The renowned British Populus company asked 1,500
Armenian citizens chosen at random a traditionalquestion of
pre-election opinion polls: If an election was to be held tomorrow,
who would you vote for?
A total of 50.7 per cent of the respondents who took part in the
opinion poll on 21-29 January gave priority to SerzhSargsyan.
[Armenian presidential candidate and leader of the Orinats Yerkir
(Law-Governed Country) Party] ArturBaghdasaryan is in the second
place with 13.4 per cent, [Armenian presidential candidate and former
Armenia President]Levon Ter-Petrosyan came third with 12.6 per cent.
A total of 7.6 per cent of the respondents would vote for [Armenian
presidential candidate from the ArmenianRevolutionary Federation –
Dashnaktsutyun] Vahan Hovhannesyan, 6.4 per cent for Artashes
Geghamyan [Armenianpresidential candidate and leader of the National
Unity Party], 4.5 per cent for Tigran Karapetyan
[Armenianpresidential candidate, owner of ALM Holding and leader of
the People’s Party], 3.2 per cent for Vazgen Manukyan[Armenian
presidential candidate and leader of the National Democratic Union],
0.9 per cent for Aram Harutyunyan[Armenian presidential candidate and
leader of the National Solidarity Party], and 0.6 per cent for Arman
Melikyan[Armenian presidential candidate, former aide to the
president of the unrecognized republic of Nagornyy Karabakh].
At a meeting with journalists today, held to announce the results of
the opinion poll, the founding director of thePopulus, Andrew Cooper,
said that the average statistics error in the opinion poll was 2.6
per cent. All informationobtained during the opinion poll was
analysed and processes by Andrew Cooper’s team in London.
A total of 42 per cent of the respondents believe that their
condition and the condition of their families willimprove this year,
51 per cent expect an improvement of Armenia’s general condition.
Polls regarding provisions of the candidates’ election manifestos
were carried out according to separate keyissues. For instance, asked
which candidate will best strengthen Armenia’s economy, 41 per cent
of the respondents named Serzh Sargsyan, 26 per cent Artur
Baghdasaryan, 17 per cent Vahan Hovhannesyan and Artashes Geghamyan,
and 15 per cent Levon Ter-Petrosyan.
Serzh Sargsyan maintains leadership in the settlement of the Nagornyy
Karabakh problem with 54 per cent, 14 per cent trust Vahan
Hovhannisyan in this issue, 13 per cent Levon Ter-Petrosyan, and 12
per cent Artur Baghdasaryan.
In the issue of the recognition of genocide [killings of Armenians in
Ottoman Turkey in 1915], 40 per cent voted for Serzh Sargsyan, 19 per
cent for Vahan Hovhannesyan, 12 per cent for Artur Baghdasaryan, and
11 per cent for LevonTer-Petrosyan. Asked who will best oppose a
treat of war, Serzh Sargsyan received top responses – 45 per cent, 13
percent voted for Levon Ter-Petrosyan, 12 per cent for Artur
Baghdasaryan.
A total of 43 per cent expect Serzh Sargsyan to resolve the roads and
infrastructure problem, 21 per cent voted forArtur Baghdasaryan, 15
per cent for Vahan Hovhannesyan, and 13 per cent for Artashes
Geghamyan and Levon Ter-Petrosyaneach. In the issue of ensuring
Armenia’s security Serzh Sargsyan is in the first place with 46 per
cent, the leaderof the Orinats Yerkir Party comes second with 18 per
cent of votes, and Vahan Hovhannesyan and Levon Ter-Petrosyanpolled
14 per cent each. Serzh Sargsyan is expected to resolve social
welfare problems by 46 per cent of therespondents, 18 per cent voted
for Artur Baghdasaryan, and 14 per cent for Vahan Hovhannesyan and
LevonTer-Petrosyan.
Based on a comprehensive analysis of the poll results, Andrew Cooper
believes that out of the nine candidates SerzhSargsyan is an obvious
leader with a big advantage over others.
[Andrew Cooper, the founding director of the Populus, in English with
Armenian voice-over, speaking at a newsconference] Serzh Sargsyan has
an advantage in all political issues over other candidates. He has a
big – 15-per-centadvantage – in the economic issues, and a
20-per-cent advantage in key security issues. These facts are a basis
tobelieve that Serzh Sargsyan has a great advantage in the
presidential election. Serzh Sargsyan’s rating exceeds theratings of
other candidates taken together. Taking into consideration the fact
that less than two weeks are left tillthe election, this advantage is
unbeatable.
[Correspondent] Compared to all other candidates, Serzh Sargsyan in
essence has an advantage in all key nationalissues: the issue of
Artsakh [Nagornyy Karabakh] 40 per cent, a threat of war 32 per cent,
recognition of the genocide21 per cent, roads and infrastructure 22
per cent, and social welfare and corruption 8 per cent [sentence as
heard].
As for the evaluation of Armenia’s political forces by the
respondents, according to evaluations from 1 to 100points, the
[ruling] Republican Party of Armenia scored 56.89 points, the
Prosperous Armenia Party [a party in thegoverning coalition] scored
46.49 points, the Orinats Yerkir Party 46.33 points, the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutyun 41.74 points, the National
Unity Party 34.04 points, the People’s Party of Armenia [led by
StepanDemirchyan who supports Ter-Petrosyan in the election] 32.57
points, and the People’s Party 32.21 points.
Incidentally, the youth were more optimistic among the respondents. A
total of 61 per cent of the respondents agedbetween 18 and 34 believe
that next year will be successful for Armenia; 54 per cent of the
respondents of this agegroup expect an improvement in their lives and
the lives of their families; 57 per cent of the respondents aged
between 18 and 44 believe that the path taken by Armenia is correct.
[translated]