EurasiaNet, NY
Feb 9 2008

NAGORNO-KARABAKH: AZERBAIJAN UP FOR A FIGHT, BUT ARMENIA UNBOWED

Ahto Lobjakas 2/09/08
A EurasiaNet Partner Post from RFE/RL

EU officials touring the South Caucasus this week were confronted by
heated words from President Ilham Aliyev, who told them Azerbaijan is
ready to "wage war" with neighboring Armenia over the disputed
territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

EU officials touring the South Caucasus this week were confronted by
heated words from President Ilham Aliyev, who told them Azerbaijan is
ready to "wage war" with neighboring Armenia over the disputed
territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan’s recent windfall of oil and gas revenues appears to have
persuaded Aliyev that he could turn the tables on Armenia, which has
long held the military upper hand in the dispute over
Nagorno-Karabakh, a predominantly ethnic-Armenian territory located
within Azerbaijan.

In talks on February 4 with Slovenian Foreign Minister Dmitrij Rupel,
who was representing the current EU Presidency, Aliyev indicated Baku
was contemplating waging war for control of the disputed territory,
which together with a strip of adjacent Azerbaijani territory has
been under Yerevan’s control since a 1988-94 war between the two
countries.

Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the EU’s external relations commissioner,
tells RFE/RL that Brussels firmly rejected Baku’s "inflammatory"
rhetoric. "I clearly said, not only to the authorities, but also at
the press conference, that I think it is highly important that they
avoid any inflammatory speech at the moment of presidential
elections," she says.

Both countries are holding a presidential vote this year — Armenia
on February 19, and Azerbaijan in October. The Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which has spent more than
15 years mediating talks between the two sides, has indicated an
election year is not likely to see major progress on the issue.

Baku, however, appears impatient. The Azerbaijani leadership, Rupel
said, appears to feel that "time is not on Armenia’s side." Nor is
money. Azerbaijan’s defense budget this year will exceed $1 billion;
Armenia’s is just one-third of that figure.

Azerbaijan has enjoyed spectacular economic growth over the past few
years. The country’s GDP grew by 25 percent in 2007, almost
exclusively on the strength of oil and gas exports.

Azerbaijan’s minister for economic development, Heydar Babayev, says
he expects his government to generate upward of $150 billion in oil
and gas revenues by 2015.

Armenia, meanwhile, has no lucrative natural resources. It is
landlocked, blockaded by neighbors Turkey and Azerbaijan, and — at
Baku’s behest — bypassed by oil and gas pipelines, as well as rail
and road projects, which originate in Azerbaijan.

‘Winning The Peace’

But, as Rupel notes, Armenia has "alliances that speak for it." This
is a reference to Russian backing. Throughout the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, Russia is rumored to have given Armenia military equipment
worth $1 billion. Russia provides for most of Armenia’s energy needs
and has bought up most of its energy infrastructure.

The Armenian government did not appeared cowed by Baku’s fighting
words. Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian tells RFE/RL that Armenia is
confident of its military capability. "No matter how strong the
Azeris will be in the next 15 years, even with this kind of spending,
even [if it] doubled every year, to catch up with Armenia’s
commitment to defend itself and Karabakh, that will require [as a]
minimum 15-20 years," he says.

Oskanian says that Armenia would not be intimidated in any event.
More importantly, he adds, he does not believe there can be a
military solution to Nagorno-Karabakh. "We fought twice with the
Azeris, we prevailed, but we never claimed that we won the war," he
says. "Unless we win the peace, we will never claim that we won the
war."

Oskanian acknowledges, however, that the chances of "winning the
peace" are receding and that Azerbaijan’s positions in the
OSCE-mediated peace talks have hardened.

Rupel — an old OSCE hand, having chaired the organization in 2005 —
also fears the Minsk Group, which oversees the mediation efforts, may
face increasing obstinacy from Baku.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a key issue in both countries’ election
campaigns, and establishment candidates are expected to win in both
countries, meaning novel approaches to the problem are not likely to
be forthcoming.

Taking a longer-term view, Rupel says the conflict is rooted in the
region’s Soviet past, when Josef Stalin arranged their borders in a
way apparently designed to exacerbate ethnic strife.

Rupel says both Armenia and Azerbaijan need a "generational change."
"You know, a new generation, younger people, [would] deal with
problems like Nagorno-Karabakh in an easier way," he says. "I think
we have to rely on a new generation of politicians on both sides.
There has been some generational change in Azerbaijan, as you know.
We’ll see how it happens here [in Armenia]. Certainly, it is not a
pleasant situation."

And what of the EU’s role? Rupel says the EU’s Neighborhood Policy is
"as balanced as possible" between the two countries. The EU, he says,
is "very careful not to upset one side or the other," with even its
economic assistance being as "similar" as possible.

But money appears to be no object in this standoff. The EU has not
been directly involved in the peace talks, and there appears to be
little wish on either side for it to engage. As an ally in a
conflict, meanwhile, the EU remains of little use.