NABUCCO VISIT AIMS TO BIND TURKEY CLOSER
By Thomas Grove

Reuters
Wednesday February 13 2008

ISTANBUL, Feb 13 (Reuters) – The European Union is expected to send a
strong message to Turkey to fall in line with the bloc’s energy policy
on Thursday when a coordinator for one of Europe’s most important
gas projects visits Ankara.

The coordinator of the Nabucco pipeline scheme, former Dutch Foreign
Minister Jozias van Aartsen is visiting Ankara on the heels of the
selection of German utility RWE as the sixth partner in the project,
which is a major plank in the EU’s policy to ease dependence on
Russian gas.

"The visit to Turkey is the EU trying to send a signal that the
Nabucco is still being taken seriously, but that there are still some
major problems, and support (for the project) is very important,"
said Gareth Winrow, professor of international relations at Bilgi
University and an expert on energy security.

Political will is now seen as crucial for the Nabucco consortium,
made up mostly of the pipeline’s transit states, as it tries to
secure natural gas around the geopolitically thorny post-Soviet
Caspian region, traditionally aligned with Russia.

Ankara has gone against the grain by pressing for the inclusion of
Iranian gas in the pipeline, despite EU opposition.

"Turkey is one of the partners of the (Nabucco) consortium, and with
no Turkey there’s no Nabucco … but there is a difference over Iran
coming into the deal," European Commission spokesman Ferran Taradellas
Espuny told Reuters.

IRANIAN GAS Despite pressure from the United States to call off
the deal and Iran’s frequent gas cuts to Turkey, Ankara has said it
will push ahead and invest $3.5 billion to develop gas fields in its
eastern neighbour and sell the gas to Europe.

That position, which analysts say decreases Nabucco’s clout at
the bargaining table with Caspian producers, is being used to bend
European will on issues including higher transit fees on Nabucco gas
transiting Turkey, as well as its EU bid.

"Turkey is trying to use its position with added inflows of gas
coming into the country (from Iran) to strengthen its position at the
bargaining table with Europe," said Manouchehr Takin, an analyst at
the Centre for Global Energy Studies.

The trip will also touch on the participation of Gaz de France in the
project, which Turkey has vocally opposed, after the French National
Assembly voted to make it a crime to deny the killing of Armenians
in Ottoman Turkey in 1915 was genocide.

"On the trip van Aartsen is going to try to get Turkey to come on
board to get Gaz de France into the partnership," said David Niles,
an analyst at Datamonitor in London.

RWE was chosen as the sixth partner after Turkey threw its support
behind the company, but the need for investment may mean a seventh
partner, a possibility Nabucco officials have mentioned before.

The 4.6 billion euro ($6.7 billion) project has already seen a number
of delays, and last month the consortium said the final date for the
project’s completion had been pushed back a year.

"We’ve had to reschedule a bit in 2009 and 2010. The final date for
the project will be 2013," said Christian Dolezal, spokesman for the
Nabucco project.

Supplies coming from Azerbaijan, which has signed an agreement with
Europe for the use of its gas in the project, have their own timeline,
and Europe is looking to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to supplement
Azeri supplies.