THE ARMENIAN REVOLUTIONARY FEDERATION: AN "ALTERNATIVE" TO POLITICS AS USUAL?

Gayane Abrahamyan

EurasiaNet
rmenia08/news/021308.shtml
Feb 13 2008
NY

In a metaphysical tangle of politics, the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation is part of Armenia’s current government while claiming to
be running a presidential campaign in opposition to it. Some analysts
say voters may not see the distinction.

"We are the alternative," declared Armenian Revolutionary
Federation-Dashnaktsutiun (ARF) presidential candidate Vahan
Hovhannisian at a February 11 rally in the Ararat region, local media
reported. "You want to change something in your life, to change the
structure, we can do that. Neither the ex-government [candidate Levon
Ter-Petrosian], nor today’s [candidate Serzh Sarkisian, the current
prime minister] can succeed, as they will change only the names."

"One of them tries to win [voters] over by hatred and regime change.

The other one tries to keep the status quo by using the state’s
leverage and pressure," elaborated Hrant Margaryan, an ARF leader.

"We try to win over both [camps.]"

The nationalist-socialist party, Armenia’s oldest, supported outgoing
President Robert Kocharian following the 1998 and 2003 presidential
elections and was until 2007 a part of Armenia’s governing coalition.

On the eve of the 2007 parliamentary elections, it adopted
opposition-style slogans while still holding three ministerial
portfolios in the government. In the end, it declined to join
Prime Minister Sarkisian’s Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) and
the Prosperous Armenia Party in a formal coalition, but gained
four ministerial posts: Agriculture, Education and Science, Labor,
and Healthcare.

Some pro-government politicians question how a party can be part of
the government, and yet criticize it. "I said it long ago: It’s like
staying a virgin and having sex at the same time," commented veteran
RPA parliamentarian Galust Sahakian. "That’s not possible."

Given the party’s 117-year history, much of the population sees the
Dashnak – the popular name for the Armenian Revolutionary Federation –
as a strong political force, but analysts say it is difficult to tell
whether or not that translates into making Hovhannisian a viable
"alternative" candidate. The campaign of Hovhannisian, a deputy
speaker of parliament, is the first presidential campaign undertaken
by a Dashnak leader since 1991.

"People see the ARF as a part of the government, since for already 10
years they have been in the government and parliament," said political
analyst Nune Mkrtchian. "However, since there have been many positive
changes in the spheres which they control, specifically in the Ministry
of Education, people tend to trust the ARF."

Some critics, though, would argue that the party’s working partnership
with the RPA is not limited to politics alone.

Hovhannisian’s daughter is married to the nephew of Prime Minister
Sarkisian. Supporters of rival candidate Ter-Petrosian have alleged
that Hovhannisian is trying to attract opposition voters in order to
"share" them with Sarkisian in a run-off vote.

In a January 30 campaign appearance, Hovhannisian termed such a
suggestion as "a mean and insidious lie." He insisted that he is his
own candidate. "We will go all the way to the end, and I won’t give
the votes I win to anyone."

The criticism, though, comes not only from the Ter-Petrosian camp.

Pro-government television stations have aired Soviet-era anti-Dashnak
films where the party is shown as an "enemy of the nation." Dashnak
supporters have blamed government obstructionism for causing power
failures at two February 11 rallies. Officials have not responded to
the charges.

But if voters are confused about the ARF’s identity ("No to the Past,
No to the Present," proclaim slogans), a handful of campaign novelties
introduced by the party have at least gained it notoriety.

Among them: a take-off on a US party primary (with only two candidates,
though; Hovhannisian won), the introduction of "contracts" with voters
and a three-hour-long television Q&A with viewers.

The Hovhannisian campaign claims that some 229,352 citizens have
already signed an individual agreement with the deputy parliamentary
speaker in which he commits to fulfill individual promises – primarily
related to social equality, accessible healthcare, fair elections
and rule of law – if elected president. Some party members have gone
so far as to claim that citizens can take their contracts to court
and petition for a judgment against Hovhannisian, in the event he is
elected and does not fulfill the commitments. Officially, however, the
party maintains that these so-called contracts are not legally binding.

Regardless, sociologist Aharon Adibekyan comments that the measures
strengthened the party’s position among voters; opinion polls done
by Sociometer (widely criticized as a pro-government pollster)
between November and December 2007 show a 2 to 3 percent increase
in Hovhannisian’s standing. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive].

A survey of 1,500 citizens run by British pollster Populus for Armenian
Public Television between January 21 and 29 put Hovhannisian in fourth
place, with 7.6 percent of the vote.

Whatever Hovhannisian’s true standing, for many voters who signed the
Dashnak candidate’s agreement, the polls do little to diminish their
need to believe that the deputy parliamentary speaker will keep his
word. "When a person signs his name under his promises," said Narine
Simonian, a 54-year-old doctor, "I believe that he undertook this to
complete his work and will not forget that we will keep it and show
it after the elections."