Agence France Presse — English
February 14, 2008 Thursday 3:22 AM GMT

Armenia to hold presidential vote after bitter campaign

Mariam Harutunian
YEREVAN, Feb 14 2008

Ex-Soviet Armenia holds a presidential election next Tuesday after a
bitterly fought campaign marked by opposition allegations that the
vote will be rigged.

With President Robert Kocharian barred from running for a third
five-year term, polls show his hand-picked successor, Prime Minister
Serzh Sarkisian, well ahead of his eight opponents in this tiny
mountainous state on Russia’s southern border.

But analysts say Sarkisian may struggle to win the more than 50
percent required to avoid a potentially risky second round.

They had initially predicted the campaign would be a cakewalk for
Sarkisian, whose Republican Party of Armenia took a majority of seats
in parliamentary elections last May.

But the race received a surge of electricity last year when former
president Levon Ter-Petrosian broke 10 years of silence and threw his
hat into the ring as a challenger to Sarkisian.

Ter-Petrosian has alleged widespread corruption and branded the
government a "criminal regime," while also saying Kocharian has done
too little to mend ties with neighbours Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Azerbaijan and Turkey have cut off diplomatic relations with Yerevan
and closed their borders in retaliation for Armenia’s support for
ethnic Armenian separatists in Azerbaijan’s breakaway Nagorny
Karabakh region.

Ter-Petrosian has won important backing from several opposition
parties, including the Heritage Party of US-born former foreign
minister Raffi Hovannisian.

Another serious contender is former parliamentary speaker Artur
Baghdasarian, who has vowed a more pro-Western course in contrast to
the ties with Moscow pursued by Kocharian.

Both Ter-Petrosian and Baghdasarian accuse the Sarkisian camp of
making unfair use of state resources to promote his candidacy,
something denied by Sarkisian.

They allege widespread vote buying, intimidation of opposition
activists and media bias in favour of the prime minister.

"No other candidate has conditions equal to those of the authorities’
candidate," said Baghdasarian, whose Rule of Law party is the largest
opposition force in parliament.

The government "is using all of its administrative, financial and
security powers" against the opposition, said Ter-Petrosian’s
spokesman, Arman Musinian.

Ter-Petrosian says that his office has been firebombed and that some
of his supporters have been attacked and earlier launched an
unsuccessful bid to have the constitutional court postpone the vote.

Sarkisian and his supporters deny any violations and say the
opposition is fabricating incidents in order to win support.

"We want legitimate elections and a legitimate president," said
Sarkisian’s campaign spokesman, Eduard Sharmazanov.

Sharmazanov also issued an oblique warning as opposition leaders
vowed to call their supporters onto the streets in the event the vote
is unfair.

"If there are forces who want to cause provocations by calling into
question these elections, the authorities are ready to do everything
to protect the constitutional order of the country," he said.

Pre-election polls show Sarkisian hovering at around 50 percent
support, with Ter-Petrosian and Baghdasarian trailing with 10-15
percent. Opposition candidates have questioned the polling companies’
independence.

As the campaign intensifies, many analysts predict a second round,
two weeks after the first vote.

"Everyone is now speaking about the inevitability of a second round,"
said Amyak Hovannisian, head of the Armenian Union of Political
Scientists.

About 600 foreign observers are to monitor the vote and analysts say
the government is keen to win international legitimacy for the
result.

Parliamentary elections last May were the first to be declared
largely in accordance with international standards.

About 2.3 million people are registered to vote.