Azg, Armenia
Feb 14 2008
British pollster defends polls ahead of Armenian presidential
election
Andrew Cooper, the director of British pollster Populus, has defended
the opinion polls it has been conducting in Armenia in the run-up to
the 19 February presidential election. In an interview with an
Armenian daily, Cooper said Populus had audited the work of its
partner, the Armenian Sociological Association, and found no grounds
to doubt its accuracy. The results of the Populus polls, which show
Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan in the lead, have been questioned by
the Armenian opposition. The following is the text of an interview
with Cooper by Armen Manvelyan titled "Opinion polls are distrusted
everywhere" and published in the Azg daily as of 15 February:
The results of opinion polls conducted by Populus, a well-known
British opinion poll organization, and their publication have given
rise to various interpretations and doubts. In order to dispel these
doubts, we met Andrew Cooper, the director of the organization, who
agreed to answer Azg’s questions.
[Manvelyan] Populus cooperated with the Armenian Sociological
Association to carry out opinion polls in Armenia. Why are you
cooperating with this particular organization, and do you trust them?
[Cooper] We set the methodology and the questions [in
questionnaires], and organize an independent check. The Armenian
Sociological Association carries out the opinion polls. Afterwards we
phone the people who were polled and check that the Armenian
Sociological Association carried out the poll and what questions were
asked. We worked with this organization before the parliamentary
election [in May 2007]. They worked properly then. We have no grounds
to suspect them. Moreover, we have our own measures for independent
control.
[Manvelyan] It is known that you will carry out one more opinion poll
and an exit poll in Armenia.
[Cooper] Yes, we are going to carry out two more polls. One of them
is an exit poll, that is an opinion poll carried out on election day
as people leave polling stations. This poll has been ordered by the
Armenian Public TV and Radio Company.
[Manvelyan] To what extent are these polls audited, in the regions
especially?
[Cooper] We carry out our checks via direct questioning, via phone
calls. There is random selection of whom to check. They may even be
called from London and asked whether the Armenian Sociological
Association carried out the poll and what questions were asked. I
repeat that we have no reason to suspect this organization or the
opinion poll methodology, as the parliamentary election last year
showed that the poll results were quite accurate.
[Manvelyan] Analyzing the results received, can we say that the
election will take place in one round, or will there be a second
round anyway?
[Cooper] According to our polls, if Serzh Sargsyan gets less than 50
per cent of the votes, there will be a second round [as published].
However, the polls were carried out in the most accurate way
possible. I would like to say that I have no stake in the Armenian
election. We have a good reputation and are not going to put it at
risk.
[Manvelyan] They say that people in Armenia are afraid to express
their opinions. Did you encounter this problem?
[Cooper] Those who wanted to answer our questions, answered. Those
who did not, did not. It happens in many countries that people refuse
to answer questions. The number who refuse is about 10 per cent, and
that is quite normal.