Reuters UK,
Feb 15 2008

President’s heir seeks top job in Armenia vote
Fri Feb 15, 2008 12:00am GMT

YEREVAN (Reuters) – Armenia votes next week in a presidential
election that is likely to transfer power from outgoing President
Robert Kocharyan to his trusted ally and prime minister Serzh
Sarksyan.

Opposition parties already allege the campaign is unfair, setting up
Tuesday’s election to be a test for stability in a country that has
only in the last few years recovered from a period of political
convulsions.

Nestled high in the Caucasus mountains, Armenia is in a region that
is emerging as a vital transit route for oil exports from the Caspian
Sea to energy-hungry world markets, though it has no pipelines of its
own.

The energy flows could be threatened, analysts warn, if an unresolved
conflict with neighbouring Azerbaijan flares again into fighting. A
dispute between Armenia and its other neighbour, Turkey, complicates
Ankara’s relations with the West.

Opinion polls give Sarksyan, 53, a lead over the rest of the field,
including former speaker of parliament Artur Baghdasaryan and Levon
Ter-Petrosyan, the previous president who was forced to resign in
1998 but is now seeking a comeback.

Most observers predict that if Sarksyan is elected, his rule will be,
in most aspects, a continuation of Kocharyan’s 10 years in office
that have been marked by economic growth and firm stands toward
Azerbaijan and Turkey.

"Our candidate is the only one with an exceptional chance to win in
the first round," said Armen Ashotyan, a lawmaker with Sarksyan’s
Republican Party. "If he wins, naturally a continuation of the policy
direction will be ensured."

Sarksyan’s victory though is not guaranteed. "There is serious
competition going on," said analyst Alexander Iskanderyan.

LONG PARTNERSHIP

Close associates for over 20 years, both Kocharyan and Sarksyan are
from Nagorno-Karabakh, a region of oil-producing Azerbaijan whose
ethnic Armenian population broke away in a 1990s war.

They worked side by side to lead the separatist forces, then
transferred their partnership to the Armenian capital.

Kocharyan, also 53, is constitutionally barred from serving a third
consecutive term. He is expected to remain influential, but he has
refused to disclose what role he will take until his replacement is
inaugurated.

Some commentators have predicted Kocharyan could become prime
minister, mimicking the arrangement in nearby Russia where outgoing
President Vladimir Putin has said he may serve as prime minister if
his protege Dmitry Medvedev wins the presidency.

"The intrigue of the election in Armenia is where Kocharyan will go
and who will be the prime minister," Gevorg Pogosyan, an independent
analyst, told Reuters.

Voters credit Kocharyan — and by association Sarksyan — with
overseeing strong economic growth. Gross domestic product grew last
year by 13.7 percent. Once blighted by power blackouts, capital
Yerevan is now enjoying a construction boom.

Sarksyan’s election chances are boosted by the fact the opposition
has failed to unite around a single candidate.

Previous votes in Armenia have been followed by mass opposition
protests alleging ballot fraud, and observers say more are possible
after Tuesday’s vote.

Armenia is Moscow’s only firm ally in a region where Russia and the
West are competing for influence. It is home to a Russian military
base and Russian firms control a significant chunk of the Armenian
economy.

Relations with Turkey are fraught in part because Ankara refuses to
recognise as genocide the killings of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey in
the early part of the last century.

(Writing by Margarita Antidze; Editing by Charles Dick)