What the Papers Say (Russia)
February 14, 2008 Thursday
"RUSSIA WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN SETTLEMENT OF CONFLICTS IN THE SOUTH
CAUCASUS"
by Ivan Sukhov
PETER SEMNEBY: KOSOVO WILL FOMENT APPREHENSION AND STIR EXPECTATIONS
IN THE CAUCASUS; An interview with Peter Semneby, EU Representative
in the Caucasus.
Kosovo may proclaim independence this week. Self-proclaimed republics
of the post-Soviet zone – Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia,
and Trans-Dniester – believe that they are next in line for
international recognition. Europe in the meantime refuses to draw
parallels between the Balkans and the Caucasus. Here is an interview
with EU Representative in the South Caucasus Peter Semneby.
Question: What effect will recognition of Kosovo’s sovereignty have
on the situation in the South Caucasus?
Peter Semneby: Kosovo will foment apprehension and stir expectations
and hopes in the Caucasus, and that’s a fact. In the meantime, Kosovo
is not a precedent for settlement of conflicts in the South Caucasus.
Differences between these conflicts (in the Balkans and in the
Caucasus) outnumber similarities, you know. Specifics – political and
otherwise – must be taken into consideration. It is a mistake to
think that all conflicts have an identical solution.
Question: And yet, self-proclaimed states in the Caucasus are
convinced that they are entitled to sovereignty even more than Kosovo
does. As a matter of fact, they have been independent de facto much
longer than Kosovo…
Peter Semneby: I’m not going to compare these conflicts.
Question: What do you think will happen in the Caucasus when Kosovo
is recognized as a sovereign state? What may these fears and
expectations you’ve mentioned result in?
Peter Semneby: It’s hard to say… I can only say what the European
Union believes is necessary. More energetic measures to restore
mutual trust and to revive contacts. Promotion of all sorts of
projects beneficial to all involved parties. Steps to open the
regions and withdraw them from isolation they live in nowadays, the
isolation that results in the besieged-fortress complex which does
not exactly facilitates solutions to the existing problems. Actively
developing cooperation and interaction with all countries of the
region including Russia, the European Union may play an important
part there. Development of relations with only one part of the
territories, however, will throw things out of whack. Hence the
necessity of EU’s presence in conflict areas.
Question: Exactly what has the European Union been doing for
settlement of conflicts in the South Caucasus?
Peter Semneby: The European Union spent 25 million euros on projects
in Abkhazia and 10 million euros in South Ossetia since 1997. The
matter concerns restoration of infrastructure, say, within the
framework of the OSCE’s South Ossetian program. In Abkhazia, the
European Union sponsored restoration of the hydroelectric power plant
on the Inguri. Other projects were focused on civil society and its
development… I hope we will establish permanent presence in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia soon. We plan to open regular offices
there.
As for Nagorno-Karabakh, the European Union is less involved there.
The situation in this region is more complicated from the standpoint
of international presence and its involvement in the process of
settlement. All the same, I’m convinced that we are needed there to
facilitate restoration of mutual understanding.
Question: What about the authorities of these self-proclaimed
republics? Do they interfere with the European Union and its efforts
in conflict areas?
Peter Semneby: Where South Ossetia and Abkhazia are concerned, it is
necessary to persuade all involved parties – meaning the government
of Georgia and the de facto authorities of these regions – that the
European Union means to help them.
Question: Which of them are easier to persuade?
Peter Semneby: It depends. Sometimes, it is Georgia that proves more
difficult.
Question: Russia has been the mediator in these conflicts since the
early 1990s. Needless to say, it is somewhat jealous of the European
Union and its projects. Would you say Russian claims have merit?
Peter Semneby: Russia has always played an instrumental part in
settlement of these conflicts and I’d say will continue doing so. The
European Union is not trying to elbow it out. We only mean to help
without elbowing anyone out. I hope that our interests in the matter
coincide and that we will be able to poll efforts to accomplish the
measures I’ve outlined.
Question: What does European Union suggest for ultimate settlement of
conflicts in the South Caucasus?
Peter Semneby: Too early to suggest any specific plans, you know. We
aim to help the involved parties with mutual understanding.
Question: How close are the involved parties to this mutual
understanding?
Peter Semneby: As I said, all three conflicts in the region are
different, and these differences are quite striking. It’s impossible
to say which conflict is more complicated. I only wish we did better
in restoration of trust between the countries at odds over
Nagorno-Karabakh.
Question: Do you think Russia will respond to recognition of Kosovo
with unilateral recognition of the self-proclaimed republics in the
South Caucasus?
Peter Semneby: You’d better ask Russian politicians. Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov recently said Russia did not plan to recognize these
republics. Lavrov attended inauguration of the president of Georgia
this January and that may mean at least beginning of normalization of
the Russian-Georgian relations. I do not expect any dramatic gestures
from Moscow, you know. I hope diplomatic efforts to settle the
conflicts will continue. Russia knows – as we do, by the way – that
the matter warrants caution.
Question: But what about recognition of sovereignty of Kosovo by the
international community? Will it not constitute a "dramatic gesture"?
Peter Semneby: As I said, it will stir hopes and foment fears it is
necessary to allay.
Question: What’s your opinion of the snap presidential election in
Georgia?
Peter Semneby: I was in Georgia when it was electing the president
and I had visited it more than once in the months before the
election. It was a difficult period for the country. I think
nevertheless that the presidential election stabilized the situation
and imbued Georgia with the feeling of security. What counts is that
it was election where political alternative was present. Performance
of the Georgian opposition in the presidential election – I mean the
votes it polled – gives it a chance in the forthcoming parliamentary
election. This election in May will become another important event in
the process of establishment of democracy in Georgia.
Question: Has the European Union been keeping an eye on the
presidential campaign in Armenia?
Peter Semneby: There are political alternatives in Armenia too. It
stirs in voters interest in politics. In the meantime, both Georgia
and Armenia have some serious problems that have to be addressed yet.
I mean freedom of the media and the manner elections are covered in
media outlets. Anyway, what counts is that political life in these
countries becomes more animated.
Question: What about Azerbaijan?
Peter Semneby: Election in Azerbaijan will be taking place eight
months from now. Too long to venture forecasts.
Question: Government buildings in Tbilisi feature the Georgian flag
and that of the European Union…
Peter Semneby: We do not mind. I’d say it merely reflects Georgia’s
eagerness to advance relations with the European Union and we
certainly have no objections to that. The European Union wants
stability for the South Caucasus, prosperity for its countries, and
neighborly relations between them. If countries of the region want
active relations with the European Union, it’s fine by us.
Question: But EU flags are usually hoisted side by side with national
flags in member countries or candidates for membership.
Peter Semneby: Membership in the European Union is not on the agenda.
Question: Russia is afraid that the European vector of some
countries’ foreign policy may split the South Caucasus the way East
Europe was divided in the Cold War era. Are these fears
well-grounded?
Peter Semneby: I’m not going to discuss membership in NATO. As for
the European Union, I do not see how it could foment a split or
something.
Source: Vremya Novostei, No 23, February 14, 2008,, p. 4
Translated by Aleksei Ignatkin