Lragir, Armenia
Feb 15 2008

SECOND ROUND IS CORNER WHERE GOVERNMENT CANNOT MANEUVER

The question has occurred to many people why the government of
Armenia wishes to get through the election in one round. Perhaps it
has several reasons. The first is perhaps the psychological reason.
The context of the election campaign shows that Serge Sargsyan is
trying his best to show that the society accepts him better than
President Robert Kocharyan. Yes, perhaps the primary goal of Serge
Sargsyan is to outdo Robert Kocharyan rather than the opposition,
because he knows he will hardly outdo the opposition, not because the
opposition has advantages but because the methods of the government
are crude. Serge Sargsyan is competing with Robert Kocharyan,
especially in the context of statements that were made before the
parliamentary election that Robert Kocharyan has the highest popular
rating and most people mention him as a desirable president, although
people know that he cannot run a third term running. Now Serge
Sargsyan needs to prove that his rating is higher than Robert
Kocharyan’s, and he seems to be trying. The proving will culminate in
Serge Sargsyan’s election in the first round, since in 1998 and 2003
Robert Kocharyan could not defeat his opponents in the first round
and the second round was held.

In addition, the second round in 2003 was mostly the `result’ of
Serge Sargsyan’s efforts. The prime minister was then the head of
Robert Kocharyan’s election office and his actions in the first round
enabled the result of the second round to seem the best that could
ever be expected. If the opposition had realized this in time,
perhaps the government would not agree to have Stepan Demirchyan in
the second round but rather vice versa. Perhaps this is the reason
why in the second round of the election 2003 the ARF Dashnaktsutyun
appeared at the front line of Robert Kocharyan’s election campaign,
and Robert Kocharyan personally started working with the election
offices.

Logically, for his part, Robert Kocharyan should prevent Serge
Sargsyan’s victory in one round, if the acting prime minister has not
talked him into retirement, of course. But apparently he has not
persuaded because the president speaks about race for the second
place in the presidential election. If he says so, he apparently
means a second round because in a one-round election the second or
fourth place is unimportant, especially that in case the government
wins the election, the issue of a new government is not so acute.

However, the psychological urge to outdo Robert Kocharyan is not the
only reason that pushes Serge Sargsyan to win the election in one
round. Although it is a sufficient reason because psychological
advantage will bring about other advantages. However, there is also a
material aspect, the point is that in case of a run-off election the
presidential candidate will have to spend more money for the
election. In addition, time is shorter in the second round, two weeks
only, but demand is bigger because the situation may grow tense and
it may be necessary to pay twice as much to control the moods of the
society. In addition, the political forces will also grow expensive,
which will try to blackmail the government with threats to endorse
the opposition candidate. What would have silenced them in the first
round will not be enough in the second round because everyone knows
that the second round is a corner for the government where it cannot
maneuver. Meanwhile, the material aspect is a highly sensitive issue
since the money that will be spent should be repaid later. The more
is spent, the harder will be to repay, because usually it is done at
the expense of the society and the nation. Meanwhile, it may create
the precondition that is necessary for a `flower revolution’.
Besides, the money may be spent, and repayment may be impossible
because of the lack of sources. Our tiny state does not have enough
resource to sustain reproduction of such volume and frequency.
Therefore, it is clear that Serge Sargsyan has at least to essential
motivations to finish in one round – psychology and spending –
because in the second round he will grow rather weak in terms of
these two, and the development will no longer depend on him.

HAKOB BADALYAN