Transitions on Line, Czech Republic
Feb 14 2008

Watching Armenia, Quietly

by Rovshan Ismayilov
14 February 2008

Analysts in Baku wonder who is the better candidate in the Armenian
presidential race. From EurasiaNet.

BAKU | In Azerbaijan, official or public interest in Armenia’s
upcoming presidential election is minimal. Few in Baku see the
impending political transition in Yerevan as having much of an impact
on efforts to break the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations stalemate.

Despite a recent push to revive peace talks, analysts contend that a
lack of popular hope in Baku for the normalization of Azeri-Armenian
relations, or for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, is behind
the lack of interest in the Armenian election.

The Azeri government’s indifferent stance reinforces this impression.
The identity of Armenia’s new president, foreign ministry
spokesperson Khazar Ibrahim succinctly commented, `will be the choice
of the Armenian voters and society.’

The Armenian vote is viewed generally by Azeri onlookers as a choice
between just two candidates, even though nine are officially in the
race. The winner of the 19 February election will replace Robert
Kocharian, who must leave office after serving two terms.

Serzh Sarkisian
Most believe that the two candidates with any chance of winning are
Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, who is seen as the favorite, and
former president Levon Ter-Petrosian, who was in office during
Armenia’s 1988-1994 war with Azerbaijan over control of Karabakh.

>From Baku’s perspective, the other seven candidates in Yerevan simply
do not exist. There is virtually no mention of them in the Azeri
media, and their movements and statements generally are not followed
by Baku political analysts or government officials. Between Sarkisian
and Ter-Petrosian, the latter is seen as a political leader more open
to compromise with Azerbaijan.

READY FOR COMPROMISE?

`Ter-Petrosian is an experienced politician who is ready for
courageous solutions,’ commented Rasim Musabekov, an
opposition-friendly political analyst in Baku. `And his speeches show
he is readier to stop the hostilities with Azerbaijan. But the issue
is whether Ter-Petrosian will be able to control the hawks in the
Armenian administration.’

`He said several times that it is necessary for Armenia to have
better relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey,’ agreed Rauf Mirkadirov,
a political columnist for the Russian-language daily Zerkalo (Mirror)
who recently returned from a trip to Armenia. `Of course, better
relations are not possible without compromises on the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue.’

Former presidential foreign policy aide Vafa Guluzade, who took part
in the Karabakh peace talks during the 1990s, also sees Ter-Petrosian
as capable of `real’ compromises – a pullout from the seven occupied
Azeri territories surrounding Karabakh and the start of some form of
cooperation with Azerbaijan. Guluzade blames Russia’s supposed
dislike of such compromises for the former president’s resignation in
1998.

With the pro-Russian Sarkisian in power, Guluzade forecasted, `the
[peace] process will remain stuck. `

The deputy chairman of the Azeri Parliament’s Security and Defense
Committee disagreed. `I do not see a big difference between them,’
Aydin Mirzazade said, referring to the Sarkisian and Ter-Petrosian
positions on Karabakh. `It was Ter-Petrosian who appointed Karabakh
war hawks Serzh Sarkisian and Robert Kocharian [as] Armenian defense
minister and prime minister, respectively.’

Speeches made by Ter-Petrosian, though, Mirzazade continued, indicate
that he grasps `Azerbaijan’s growing strength’ – a phrase commonly
used to refer to the country’s energy-fueled economic boom and recent
military buildup.

Mirzazade said regardless of who wins, `the new president will have
to consider the new realities of our region and Azerbaijan’s growing
military and economic potential.’

Analyst Musabekov sees Sarkisian as out of sync with those `new
realities.’

`This group does not really understand the situation in the region …
and does not see the risks that Azerbaijan is getting stronger.
Sarkisian is more confrontational,’ he said.

The Foreign Ministry’s Ibrahim noted only that the government hopes
Armenia’s next president will take a `more constructive position on
the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.’

The expected victory by Sarkisian could bring some benefits for the
Karabakh peace process, Musabekov suggested. `Sarkisian is from the
incumbent administration that conducts talks with Azerbaijan. If he
wins, there will not be need for delays in the negotiation process.
He will not need time to get a grasp of the situation.’

The fact that Sarkisian is originally from Karabakh is another
advantage, Musabekov continued. `Because once he decides to accept
compromises, he will face fewer problems to persuade the elite of
Nagorno-Karabakh to agree with that.’

Another independent political expert, Ilgar Mammadov, believes that
the election means Yerevan is currently under greater outside
pressure than Baku to compromise on Karabakh.

INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE

In early January, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe’s Minsk Group, which is overseeing negotiations between
Armenia and Azerbaijan, traveled to Baku, Yerevan, and Karabakh. `The
reason for these renewed efforts [by both governments] lies in the
understanding that there is a high correlation between election
cycles and the negotiation process,’ Mammadov noted. `Previously, the
presidents of both Armenia and Azerbaijan, when up for election, have
always promised a compromise in order to ensure the West’s support
amidst election fraud and failed to deliver such a compromise
afterwards under various pretexts.’

Eventually, though, international pressure will focus on Azerbaijan,
he said. `Apparently, Yerevan is pressed harder now, but the pressure
will shift to Baku after April, heading towards the October 2008
presidential elections in Azerbaijan,’ he noted.

If Ter-Petrosian somehow wins the vote, Mammadov believes, Western
pressure on Azerbaijan will stay strong, even after its upcoming
presidential poll. `He already says he is ready for compromises.
Therefore, if he wins, the West will demand more compromises from
Baku as well,’ the expert said.

Rovshan Ismayilov is freelance journalist based in Baku. A partner
post from EurasiaNet.