Armenian presidential race focuses on economic revival, disputed
Nagorno-Karabakh
The Associated Press
Published: February 17, 2008
YEREVAN, Armenia: Armenians vote for a new president Tuesday amid fears
that Kosovo’s declaration of independence could increase tensions in
breakaway regions across the former Soviet Union.
The election could determine how far Armenia is willing to go to avoid
renewed conflict with energy-rich Azerbaijan ‘ which has been beefing
up its military in recent years with its oil wealth ‘ over the
territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The struggle over the breakaway region of Azerbaijan is one of several
so-called "frozen conflicts" ‘ including the Trans-Dniester region of
Moldova, and South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia ‘ that could heat up
after the declaration of independence by Serbia’s breakaway province of
Kosovo.
Nagorno-Karabakh and several surrounding areas in Azerbaijan have been
controlled by ethnic Armenian separatists since a 1994 cease-fire ended
six years of full-scale war.
Some 30,000 people were killed and more than 1 million driven from
their homes in the fighting. There are still sporadic clashes along
Nagorno-Karabakh’s borders.
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The Armenian government says Nagorno-Karabakh should be recognized as
a sovereign state, while Azerbaijan says it will never cede its
territory.
The Feb. 19 election pits Armenia’s powerful prime minister, Serge
Sarkisian, 53, against former President Levon Ter-Petrosian, 63, who
led the country through the first painful years of independence from
the Soviet Union and the devastating war over Nagorno-Karabakh.
The stern Sarkisian, groomed by outgoing President Robert Kocharian as
his preferred successor, is expected to win, benefiting from the
country’s relatively strong economy. Many voters here associate
Ter-Petrosian with the economic collapse of the 1990s.
The two candidates differ sharply in their approach to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Sarkisian, a native of the region and a decorated war hero, appears
less flexible than Ter-Petrosian, who was forced to resign in 1998
after advocating concessions and has hinted that he could seek a
compromise.
Armenia’s location between the energy-rich Caspian Sea region and
southern Europe, and its proximity to Iran, make it of strategic
importance for the West and Russia.
With a population of about 3.2 million on a territory the size of
Belgium, Armenia has struggled to build an economy in the wake of the
1991 Soviet collapse and in the face of blockades by neighboring
Azerbaijan and its key ally Turkey.
Turkey has a stake in the dispute because it is outraged by Armenia’s
efforts to win international recognition of the killing of 1.5 million
Armenians by Ottoman Turks in the World War I-era as genocide.
The blockades have slowed the country’s economy by disrupting trade and
cutting Armenia out of lucrative energy and transport projects. Despite
economic progress over the last decade, more than a quarter of
Armenians still live in poverty.
Speaking to some 40,000 supporters at a rally Sunday in central
Yerevan, Sarkisian promised to fight poverty and corruption.
"I am one of you. I’m someone who knows your problems and knows how to
solve them," he said.
The United States, whose large Armenian Diaspora has a strong lobby in
Congress, has poured some US$1.7 billion (?¬1.2 billion) in aid into the
country since 1991, encouraging economic and political liberalization.
Armenia is eligible for over US$235 million (?¬160 million) in U.S. aid.
But the money is contingent upon political reforms and a questionable
election could jeopardize Washington’s support. A clean vote would
likely strengthen Armenia’s ties with the European Union.
Russia has traditionally been Armenia’s key partner in the region and
has maintained a firm grip on the smaller country’s economy,
controlling key energy and infrastructure assets.
Kosovo’s planned declaration of independence from Serbia has raised
tensions. Moscow has warned that unilateral recognition of Kosovo’s
independence by the West could encourage separatist regions elsewhere
in the former Soviet Union.
Although the Kremlin has tried to remain neutral in the dispute between
Armenia and Azerbaijan, it has close ties to separatist governments in
several breakaway regions, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia.