ARMENIAN PM TIPPED TO WIN PRESIDENTIAL VOTE
by Mariam Harutunian

Agence France Presse — English
February 17, 2008 Sunday 1:49 AM GMT

Ex-Soviet Armenia heads to the polls for a presidential election
Tuesday with Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian widely tipped to emerge
the winner from a bitterly fought campaign.

Polls show Sarkisian well ahead of his eight rivals in the race to
replace President Robert Kocharian, who is constitutionally barred
from running for a third five-year term.

But analysts say Sarkisian may struggle to win the more than 50
percent required to avoid a potentially risky second round.

Opponents have accused the Sarkisian camp of using state resources
to rig the election — a charge the prime minister denies.

Leading opposition candidates have warned they will call supporters
to the streets if they believe the vote is unfair, raising fears of
post-election unrest.

A small mountainous country of about three million, Armenia has seen
political discord erupt into violence before. In 1999, a group of armed
men stormed the country’s parliament and killed seven high-ranking
officials, including the prime minister.

In recent years, however, the country has enjoyed relative stability
and economic growth, which Sarkisian said would continue if he was
elected.

In an interview with AFP, Sarkisian said he expected to win the
election in the first round and dismissed opposition allegations
of fraud.

"Have you ever seen a country where the opposition does not come up
with allegations against the authorities, especially during the time
of elections?" he said. "Ninety-nine percent of these allegations
have nothing to do with reality."

Analysts had initially predicted the campaign would be easy for
Sarkisian, whose Republican Party of Armenia took a majority of seats
in parliamentary elections last May.

But the race was given new life last year when former president Levon
Ter-Petrosian broke 10 years of silence and threw his hat into the
ring as a challenger to Sarkisian.

Ter-Petrosian has staged a series of well-attended rallies ahead of
the vote, including a demonstration in the capital Saturday that drew
tens of thousands of supporters.

"The movement against the regime has already won," he told the
cheering crowd.

Ter-Petrosian has alleged widespread corruption and branded the
government a "criminal regime," while also vowing to be more
conciliatory in relations with neighbours Azerbaijan and Turkey.

The two countries have cut off diplomatic relations with Yerevan and
closed their borders in retaliation for Armenia’s support for ethnic
Armenian separatists in Azerbaijan’s breakaway Nagorny Karabakh region.

Ankara has also been deeply angered by Yerevan’s efforts to have
World War I killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Turks internationally
recognised as genocide. Turkey steadfastly rejects the genocide label,
saying both Armenians and Turks were killed during civil strife.

Former parliamentary speaker Artur Baghdasarian has also emerged as
a contender in the race. Baghdasarian, who joined the opposition in
2006 after being ousted from his post for criticising the government,
has vowed a more pro-Western course than the close ties with Moscow
pursued by Kocharian.

Pre-election polls show Sarkisian hovering at around 50 percent
support, with Ter-Petrosian and Baghdasarian trailing with 10-15
percent. Opposition candidates have questioned the polling companies’
independence.

As the campaign intensified, many analysts predicted a second round,
two weeks after the first vote.

"Everyone is now speaking about the inevitability of a second round,"
said Amyak Hovannisian, head of the Armenian Union of Political
Scientists.

About 600 foreign observers are to monitor the vote and analysts say
the government is keen to win international legitimacy for the result.

Parliamentary elections last May were the first to be declared largely
in accordance with international standards.