ELECTION UNLIKELY TO LIFT ARMENIA’S ISOLATION
by Michael Mainville

Agence France Presse — English
February 17, 2008 Sunday 1:57 AM GMT

Skulls and bones piled in communal graves, dead bodies abandoned
in streets — images on display in Yerevan symbolise how the mass
killings of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey still haunt this country and
define its relations with the outside world.

As Armenians head to the polls Tuesday for a presidential election,
experts say the country’s fraught relations with its Turkic neighbours,
fuelled by the memory of the killings, are unlikely to improve
whoever wins.

For voters, the stark images at the Armenian Genocide Museum have
lost none of their power almost a century after they were taken.

Hundreds of thousands of Armenians died in today’s eastern Turkey
between 1915 and 1923 in what Armenians claim was a deliberate act
of genocide by the Ottoman Empire. Turkey denies this, saying both
Armenians and Turks were killed in civil strife.

Since gaining its independence with the collapse of the Soviet Union
in 1991, the dispute has been at the root of the country’s foreign
policy, leaving the country deeply isolated, with two of its four
borders closed.

Armenia’s efforts to have the killings internationally recognized as
genocide have deeply angered Turkey, which has cut diplomatic ties
with Yerevan and sealed its borders with Armenia.

"For our country this is a security issue," said Hayk Demoian,
the director of the genocide museum. "It’s about making sure mass
killings can’t happen again," he said.

The killings have also coloured Armenia’s relations with neighbouring
Azerbaijan, a mostly Muslim and Turkic-speaking country with which
Armenia fought a war over the disputed region of Nagorny Karabakh.

An ethnic Armenian enclave that was part of Azerbaijan during the
Soviet era, Karabakh broke away from Azerbaijani control during a
bloody conflict in the early 1990s that killed thousands and forced
hundreds of thousands from their homes.

Most Armenians see Azerbaijan’s claim to Karabakh as another example of
Turkic aggression. After more than a decade of foreign-backed talks,
the two countries remain officially at war over the disputed region
and clashes along the frontline are common. There have been few signs
of a breakthrough in negotiations.

During the presidential campaign, some candidates have called for
a softer approach to Armenia’s neighbours. Former president Levon
Ter-Petrosian, who broke 10 years of silence last year to announce
his bid for the presidency, has called for a more conciliatory tone
with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

But analysts said it’s extremely unlikely Tuesday’s election will
signal a shift in Armenia’s strained relations with its neighbours
or an end to its regional isolation.

"These elections will not lead to any drastic changes in foreign
policy," political analyst Alexander Iskandarian said.

Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, a protege of President Robert
Kocharian and considered a foreign-policy hawk, is widely expected
to win the vote.

And even if an opposition candidate like Ter-Petrosian came to power,
any new president would be hard-pressed to make concessions to the
country’s arch-foes, said political analyst Manvel Sarkisian.

"No president can give up on the recognition of the genocide or on
Karabakh," he said.

At the Armenian Genocide Museum, Demoian said the recognition of the
killings as genocide and maintaining the claim to Karabakh are not
abstract historical issues.

"It is part of the collective memory of the Armenian people and we
cannot deny our memories," he said.

"I don’t think anyone would ever make a dramatic shift from our
well-known policies. It would be the end of their political career."