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Outright win likely for Serge Sargsian

* Protests planned

YEREVAN (Feb. 20, 4:30 A.M.) — Prime Minister Serge Sargsian has a
commanding lead in Armenia’s presidential election as vote tallying
continues throughout the country. Just under 70 percent of eligible
voters went to the polls on February 19 to choose the country’s third
president.

With 70 percent of precincts reporting, Mr. Sargsian had 55 percent of
the vote. Former president Levon Ter-Petrossian had 20 percent, former
speaker Artur Baghdasarian had 17 percent, and the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation’s Vahan Hovhannesian had 6 percent.

An exit poll sponsored by Public Television suggested that 57 percent
of the population voted for Mr. Sargsian, with 17 percent choosing
former president Levon Ter-Petrossian. The poll was based on
interviews at 126 polling stations and was conducted by the British
Populus company.

The election is being observed by 620 foreign and 14,584 local
observers. The European Observation Mission is scheduled to announce
its preliminary conclusions at 4 p.m. local time on Wednesday,
February 20. The mission includes 316 observers from the OSCE ODIHR as
well as numerous members of parliament from European countries and the
EU.

If Mr. Sargsian turns out to have surpassed the 50 percent threshold,
he can claim the presidency without a runoff round, in which he would
face the candidate with the second-largest number of votes. He is
expected to continue the domestic and foreign policies pursued over
the last 10 years by the outgoing president, Robert Kocharian.

Supporters of Mr. Ter-Petrossian are expected to gather in central
Yerevan at 3 p.m. on Wednesday. As expected, Mr. Ter-Petrossian’s camp
has declared victory in the polls, citing its own exit poll. The
former president has promised that the protest will continue until his
victory is recognized. Such protests have followed past elections as
well.

The campaigns of Mr. Ter-Petrossian and Mr. Baghdasarian have made
allegations of widespread fraud and intimidation in the election.
Police are investigating the incidents reported, including two
beatings and some scuffles.

Voting is carried out and results are tallied by electoral commissions
that include representatives of the five parties in parliament,
including Mr. Baghdasarian’s party and the Heritage Party, which is
supporting Mr. Ter-Petrossian’s candidacy. In addition, each candidate
is entitled to have proxies at polling places as well as at the
central and district electoral commissions; observers and the media
have access to these places as well, including during vote tallying.
Armenian television stations showed the tallying in various polling
places live.

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