Kosovo Should Serve as a Wake-Up Call

The Moscow Times, Russia
Feb 19 2008

Kosovo’s declaration of independence has cracked open the lid on
Pandora’s box. Recognition of the enclave’s independence by the
European Union and the United States would rip the lid right off.

No matter what EU and U.S. governments say, Sunday’s development
sets a very important precedent. A concentrated ethnic majority —
Kosovar Albanians — is establishing an independent state in Europe
without the consent of its parent state, Serbia.

Western policymakers might be hoping that the integration of all of
the Balkans into the EU and NATO would minimize the consequences of
the Kosovo precedent.

But these hopes are limited by how many nations and ethnic groups
the EU could absorb or anchor before such an the expansion started
threatening its economic, security and political viability.

The Kosovo example also risks starting a chain reaction elsewhere in
the world, including former Soviet republics.

International recognition of Kosovo’s independence would be fraught
with negative consequences for Russia, which has its own ethnically
distinct republics such as Chechnya.

In addition, such recognition would force Russia to take a stand after
years of ambiguity on so-called frozen conflicts within the former
Soviet Union. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia to
offer tacit support for separatist regimes while officially backing
the territorial integrity of former Soviet republics. Russian
policymakers have hinted that their rhetoric vis-a-vis Georgia’s
separatist republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well as Moldova’s
Transdnestr might change in the wake of Kosovo’s independence, They
have, however, kept mum on Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenian majority
enclave claimed by Azerbaijan.

Such an ambiguity — coupled with Russian efforts to court Azerbaijan
by offering to sell weapons at a discount, among other things —
could be interpreted as a double standard — the very thing that
President Vladimir Putin angrily accused the West of doing when he
commented on Kosovo’s independence last week.

The ambiguity in the Kremlin’s approach toward frozen conflicts in
its neighborhood demonstrates vividly that its real interest is to
anchor former parts of the Soviet Union to Moscow, not to support
the self-determination of self-declared republics or the territorial
integrity of its neighbors.

Self-proclaimed republics should realize that the Kremlin’s concern
about their cause would vanish instantly if their parent states agreed
to be anchored to Russia. The republics should consider beginning
negotiations in earnest with their parent states or at the very least
distancing themselves from Russia before that happens.