OUT OF ARMENIA, SOMETHING NEW?

The Economist
splaystory.cfm?story_id=10737743
Feb 21 2008
UK

Armenia’s new president says he is ready to talk to Azerbaijan

A cross by Sarkisian’s nameELECTIONS in former Soviet republics rarely
yield surprises. The incumbent wins; the opposition cries foul; it
takes to the streets. The presidential vote in Armenia on February
19th ran true to form. Serzh Sarkisian, the prime minister, won 53%
of the vote, enough to avert a runoff with his main rival, Levon
Ter-Petrossian, with 21%. Mr Ter-Petrossian, a former president,
said Mr Sarkisian had stolen the vote even before ballots were
counted. Independent observers talked of ballot stuffing and
intimidation.

Yet, as thousands of demonstrators gathered in central Yerevan,
monitors from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe
opined that the election was "mostly in line with the country’s
international commitments", even though the vote count in 16% of
stations was "bad or very bad". That verdict makes it more unlikely
that the opposition can overturn the result.

Assuming Mr Sarkisian does get the top job, he will have his work cut
out. Small and landlocked, Armenia has been blockaded by Azerbaijan
and Turkey since it won a vicious war in 1994 for possession of
Nagorno-Karabakh, a province of Soviet Azerbaijan that was mostly
populated by Armenians. Russian troops patrol some of its borders
and, though economic growth has been fuelled by a building boom and
dollops of aid from America and the Armenian diaspora, much of the
recent wealth is concentrated in the hands of oligarchs. Russia has
a huge stake in the economy.

Like the outgoing president, Robert Kocharian, Mr Sarkisian is from
Nagorno-Karabakh. Both men were commanders in the war. But unlike his
hawkish predecessor, Mr Sarkisian is "a pragmatist, a skilled manager,
and receptive to new ideas," argues Tigran Lazarian, a foreign-policy
expert in Yerevan. As defence minister, Mr Sarkisian oversaw Armenia’s
adhesion to a NATO scheme for former Soviet colonies. This week Mr
Sarkisian told your correspondent he was ready to make peace with
Azerbaijan so long as it was "an honourable one".

This might include ceding some of the conquered territories
outside Nagorno-Karabakh. On Turkey, he struck a more hawkish note,
calling Turkey’s pre-conditions for establishing diplomatic ties
"unacceptable". Yet long-stalled unofficial talks between the two
countries are expected to resume once Mr Sarkisian takes over.

What transpires between Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan is not up to
Mr Sarkisian alone. Clearing the government of corruption is. One
test will be the number of allegedly crooked ministers he boots out
of the cabinet. Should he flunk this, Mr Ter-Petrossian’s talk of
"criminal rule" will ring ever more true.