Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Feb 21 2008
Sarksyan torn between realities and maintaining the status quo
Taking a look at the political background of Armenian Prime Minister
Serzh Sarksyan, who won a clear victory in Tuesday’s presidential
election, one can hold little hope for a dramatic shift in the
intransigent policies of Yerevan, which has put worldwide recognition
of an alleged Armenian genocide at the heart of its foreign policy
decision-making mechanism.
Yet facts on the ground, in particular the poverty in the volatile
country, may force Sarksyan to bring a new tone to Armenia’s
well-known and established discourse since he will find challenging
files on his desk when he eventually takes office.
The head of the election commission in Yerevan announced yesterday
that complete election returns showed Sarksyan has won Armenia?s
presidential vote, while the opposition claims the vote was rigged,
with several thousand supporters protesting in the capital.
A preliminary count of the ballots cast nationwide showed Sarksyan
had close to 53 percent of the vote in Tuesday?s election, Central
Election Commission chief Garegin Azarian said — enough to win
outright and avoid a runoff. Top opposition candidate Levon
Ter-Petrosian had 21.5 percent, Azarian said.
Landlocked Armenia lies high in the Caucasus Mountains between Turkey
and Azerbaijan, two states with which it has strained relations. The
ex-Soviet republic has emerged as an important transit region for oil
exports from the Caspian Sea to world markets but lacks significant
resources of its own.
Groomed by outgoing President Robert Kocharian, Sarksyan has vowed to
continue the policies of the incumbent president.
Sarksyan, a 52-year-old former welder, is from Nagorno-Karabakh — as
is Kocharian, a notorious hard-liner. Nagorno-Karabakh is a territory
inside Azerbaijan that has been controlled by Armenian and local
ethnic Armenian forces since a six-year war which ended in 1994.
Tensions remain high between Armenia and Azerbaijan, both ex-Soviet
republics in the Caucasus. Sarksyan was at Kocharian?s side in the
separatist administration during the war. For nearly 15 years he has
held senior posts in Armenia?s government, including those of defense
minister and national security minister.
Hasan Selim Özertem, a Eurasia expert from the Ankara-based
International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO/USAK), has
maintained that Sarksyan will continue Kocharian?s intransigent
approach on key issues closely related to Turkey.
?He has already pledged that he will not abandon policies pursued by
Kocharian. As a leading member of ?the Karabakh clan?, he will
particularly maintain a nationalist attitude on the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue. Meanwhile, he will deepen relations with Russia as well as
with Iran,? Özertem told Today?s Zaman on Wednesday.
?If Petrosian was elected he might be expected to launch pragmatist
initiatives on key issues concerning Turkey in the short term or at
least in the medium term. In the past Petrosian had strongly argued
that Armenia could become a powerful country only by improving its
relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Though Petrosian may still try
to stage a ?colored revolution? similar to those in Georgia and
Ukraine, it will not be as effective,? Özertem also said.
Ankara has recognized Yerevan since the former Soviet republic won
independence in 1991, but nevertheless refuses to establish
diplomatic ties because of Armenian efforts to secure international
condemnation of the controversial World War I era killings of
Anatolian Armenians as genocide. Armenians claim up to 1.5 million of
their kin were slaughtered in orchestrated killings during the last
years of the Ottoman Empire. Turkey categorically rejects the claims,
saying that 300,000 Armenians along with at least as many Turks died
in civil strife which emerged when the Armenians took up arms for
independence in eastern Anatolia and sided with the Russian troops
which were invading Ottoman lands.
In 1993 Turkey also shut its border with Armenia in a show of
solidarity with its close ally Azerbaijan, which was at war with
Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, dealing a heavy economic
blow to the impoverished nation. Ankara wants Armenia to abandon its
campaign for the recognition of the killings as genocide and make
progress in its dispute with Baku before formal diplomatic relations
can be established.
Prominent Milliyet columnist and foreign policy expert Semih Ýdiz?s
impression concerning the era of Sarksyan?s presidency is, however,
quite different from that of Özertem.
Ýdiz, who was in Yerevan during election campaigning, held lengthy
interviews with Armenian politicians and representatives of civil
society there.
Sarksyan?s stance, which signals a firm continuation of Kocharian?s
policies, is ?the perception on the surface,? Ýdiz told Today?s Zaman
yesterday.
?Yet one has to take into consideration the realities on the ground,
mainly a crippled economy in Armenia. Thus he will at some point feel
the need and pressure to make a shift in certain policies. The
economy was also a main item during his campaign. In order to be able
to improve the economy, a normalization of relations with Turkey is a
must,? Ýdiz added, referring to the fact that the election campaign
was dominated by policies for economic revival. More than a quarter
of Armenia?s 3.2 million people live in poverty.
Ýdiz also noted that Sarksyan would eventually have to be ?realistic?
concerning the Nagorno-Karabakh issue as well, given the fact that
the international community has adopted a solid stance considering
Armenia?s presence in the territory as occupation.
21.02.2008
EMÝNE KART
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress