Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Feb 21 2008

US elections and Turkey

FARUK LOGOGLU

American football’s Super Bowl 2008 made history as the underdog New
York Giants won against an opponent that seemed invincible and
unstoppable, the New England Patriots. The Super Tuesday presidential
election primaries and those that followed since are poised for
similar fame. We now have the Republican Party’s likely candidate in
Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama appears to have a good
chance of getting the Democratic nomination. In both instances there
is the stuff of history and of drama. For McCain, it is a super
comeback from his last time out as a humbled presidential candidate
in 2004. For Obama, it is the smell of victory as the underdog. If
either goes the full distance, Super Tuesday will have made its mark
on presidential politics.
The Republicans

The picture for the Republicans is a little clearer than it is for
the Democrats. Senator McCain appears to have a decisive lead and is
likely to be the Republican Party’s candidate for president. If
McCain clinches an early victory and wins enough delegates to become
his party’s candidate, he will then have a head start in his campaign
for the presidency. This will give him a significant edge over his
Democratic opponent. He will have more time to appeal to a broader
segment of voters, develop his position on domestic and foreign
issues in detail and garner extra funds to conduct the remainder of
his campaign effectively.

Senator McCain has many qualities that make him an outstanding
candidate. I have met with him in Washington, D.C., on a number of
occasions when I served as Turkey’s ambassador to the US. He is a man
of character and honesty. He is a Vietnam War veteran and a former
prisoner of war. A senator since 1986, he has vast experience in
national and international affairs. Having traveled abroad
extensively, he is knowledgeable in foreign policy issues and has
exposure to other countries. McCain represents the best qualities of
the American way: integrity, honesty, endurance, hard work, fairness
and a sense of justice. Though he has difficulty with the very
conservative base of his own party, he holds strong appeal to a broad
range of moderately conservative segments and liberals close to the
center. If he can develop an integrated platform on domestic and
foreign affairs and propose sound ideas particularly on the economy,
social security and health services issues, his chances of winning
the elections in November should improve.

The Democrats

The race for the nomination between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary
Clinton is close and appears to be set to continue until the very
end. Obama has the momentum on his side, winning symbolically big
victories and attracting votes from a diverse segment of voters,
including even some Republicans. However, Clinton is still very much
in the race and it is therefore too early to pass a final judgment on
who will emerge as the winner.

Both candidates have strong qualities and assets. Nonetheless, Obama
seems to be ahead in terms of the strength and reasons of his appeal
to the Americans. First, he does not represent a dynasty in the order
of the Clinton, Kennedy or Bush families. Probably tired of
dynasties, American voters may prefer Obama, who comes from a modest
background. Second, he represents change and has succeeded in
spreading his message of change. It does not matter that he has not
articulated all the threads of his thinking and his vision for
America. It does, however, matter that he has captured the
imagination of a wide spectrum of Americans, especially the youth,
who wish to see a fresh start in their country. Third, he has been
able to project a positive image with few negatives, thus attracting
support from both genders, all the races and ethnic groupings
belonging to different generations. Finally, he has built a winning
momentum in his campaign, enabling him to raise enough money to
continue until the party convention in August where the Democrats
will choose their candidate.

Senator Clinton, on the other hand, has experience on her side and
has long been involved in public life. She is familiar with
international politics and has well-articulated proposals on
important domestic issue. However, her campaign suffers from a
negative image problem among the Americans. She is having
difficulties raising campaign funds and has so far failed to fuel the
imagination of the American people.

The close race between the two senators will mean much of the energy
of the Democrats will have been spent in intra-party politics,
depriving them of valuable time in the next few months to fight the
Republican side as the nation moves closer to the November elections.

Who will win in November?

The last two presidential elections in 2000 and 2004 have shown that
American voters are evenly divided between the Democrats and the
Republicans. The 2000 election was so close that it was decided by
the Supreme Court. It is highly probable that the 2008 elections will
also be a very tight one. That having been said, the Democrats may
still have a slight edge. There is the factor of fatigue with
Republican administrations in power for the last two terms. An
eight-year alternating cycle between the two parties this time favors
the Democrats. The war in Iraq has been deeply divisive and
increasingly unpopular in the US. This, too, works to the benefit of
the Democrats. The economy, unemployment, a housing mortgage crisis
and rising fuel prices have reduced confidence in the economic
policies of the Republicans. If the Democratic candidate is Obama, he
seems to be beating the Republican McCain by 4-5 percentage points in
most opinion polls so far. In other words, the Democrats are slightly
favored and Obama appears to have the best chance of winning in
November. Yet, it would be premature to make a definitive guess
because the American voter is basically conservative, caters to
religious influences and may choose to go with a moderate Republican
in Senator McCain.

Who is good for Turkey?

In terms of specific issues of interest to Turkey, Republican Senator
McCain is the best bet. He has refused to bow to Armenian demands for
recognition of their genocide claims. He is also familiar with Turkey
and has taken a close interest in Turkish-American relations. He is
Turkey-friendly. On the other hand, both senators Obama and Clinton
have promised support to the Armenian lobby on the genocide issue.
Hillary Clinton has otherwise taken a warm approach to the
Turkish-American community and has spoken warmly about Turkey’s
importance on various occasions. Obama has publicly committed himself
to supporting Armenian claims. How he generally perceives Turkey and
Turkish-American relationship is not known at this stage.

However, it is more prudent to approach this matter in a broader
perspective. On the Armenian issue, we must remember that promises
made as a candidate are toned down when one makes it into the White
House. National interest considerations counterbalance narrow
political interests. It would thus be a mistake to judge a
candidate’s value in terms of his/her campaign position on a single
issue. Moreover, I would suggest that rather than asking which
candidate is better for us, we should be asking which candidate is
better for America. If the new president revitalizes America, making
its economy stronger, its foreign policy peaceful, emphasizing soft
power elements against hard power elements of America’s strength
abroad, devotes meaningful resources to fighting poverty and disease
— particularly in Africa — strengthens the Euro-Atlantic community
(and Turkey’s membership in the EU), that president will have made
America a good influence for all of us across the globe. Let us
therefore pray that whoever is elected in November, s/he will be a
good president for the US.

21.02.2008