Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
Feb. 22, 2008
Analytics – From Georgia to Armenia: Levan and Levon – similar names,
similar fates – Analysis
[ 22 Feb 2008 16:10 ]
Similar names of Ter-Petrosyan and Gachechiladze seem to bring
similar political fate
Baku. Vugar Masimoglu-APA. The presidential elections in Armenia gave
expected results. Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian was elected
president for a five-year term and this laid the foundation of
political inheritance of the power in the country. Protest actions of
Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s supporters after the elections, statements
rejecting to recognize the results of the elections, units of
Interior Troops in the streets resemble the recent happenings in
Georgia. May the results of the post-election happenings in Armenia
differ from those in Georgia?
Foreign support plays one of the main roles in the elections,
particularly in the elections in democracy transition countries. It
is not accidental that almost all, who tried to forecast the results
of the elections in Armenia, said `the candidate having stronger
foreign support will win the elections.’ Armenia is probably the only
country so dependent on the factor of foreign influence while
determining even the smallest details of its domestic policy. That’s
why, it is possible to analyze the declared results of the elections
and forecasts about post-election period basing on the factor of
foreign support. And in these terms it is obvious that Serzh
Sarkisian, who was declared the winner of the elections, has more
advantages over his rival. It is not realistic that the opposition’s
rally will deprive Serzh Sarkisian of this advantage.
It is not convincing that Levon Ter-Petrosyan and his supporters can
do anything against Serzh Sarkisian, who receives strong foreign
support of Russia and the US, support of Armenian Diaspora and is
backed by such a strong political institution as army. The state of
ex-president does not differ from the state of Levan Gachechiladze,
the single candidate of Georgian opposition. Georgian opposition
claimed that Levan Gachechiladze won the elections, but they could
not officialize their claims, as they had no foreign support.
Actually, Levan Gachechiladze had more advantages compared with Levon
Ter-Petrosyan. He was the single candidate of the opposition,
besides, arrests on charges of coup before the elections, closure of
Imedi TV channel, violent suppression of rallies increased Levan
Gachechiladze’s chances of winning. And there was a foreign force,
which was interested in Mikhail Saakashvili’s leaving the power, it
was Russia. But even such positive factors did not allow Georgian
opposition to officialize its victory.
Levon Ter-Petrosyan has not such superiorities unlike Georgian
counterpart and there is a candidate in front of him who is supported
by West and Russia. Presidential elections in Georgia and Armenia
have similarities on votes and technologies which chosen by
opposition for post election period. May be, election process will
end in squares not in central Election Commission as in Georgia and
Armenian opposition will agree with defeat in the elections .It means
that, the presidential election which its results have been known
beforehand and adopted by many interested sides such as West, Russia,
church, army etc. was held in Armenia. Opposition can not change the
result by holding meetings. It seems that, fortunes of Ter-Petrosyan
and Gachechiladze will be like as their names.
How declaration of Serzh Sarkisyan as a win of elections influence to
the settlement of Nagorno Karabakh? Serzh Sarkisyan answered to it:
`Armenia will not change his policy on the settlement of Nagorno
Karabakh, irrespective of results of elections,’ he said. There are
many realities in the statement. OSCE MG co-chairs also said that
they will not change course on the settlement of Nagorno Karabakh
conflict .Kosovo problem can more influence to the settlement process
than declaration of Serzh Sarkisyan as a win of elections. Election
of Serzh Sarkisyan as a President and Kosovo problem can freeze the
settlement process of the conflict for a short time.
Whether elections in Armenia will influence to political process or
not, we can say that, the situation will be differed from Georgia for
its features. After presidential elections, there may be
confrontation between Armenians and Nagorno Karabakh Armenians who
want to hold the power for a long time .There can be separation in
the society. Armenian opposition hopes for it. If resistance of
Ter-Petrosyan and his supporters does not decrease, we will witness
separation, confrontation and collision which will engrave February
20 on the history.