BY FORECASTS OF EBRD, ECONOMIC GROWTH TO MAKE 8% IN ARMENIA IN 2008 AGAINST 10% GROWTH FORECAST BY ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT

Noyan Tapan
Feb 25, 2008

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 25, NOYAN TAPAN. The European Bank for Reconstruction
and Development (EBRD) forecasts a 8% GDP growth in Armenia in 2008 –
against 10% growth forecast by the Armenian government. The bank’s
chief economist Eric Berglof said during the presentation of the
EBRD report "2007 Report on Transitional Processes. The Life at the
Transitional Stage" that it is forecast that in 2008 the average
economic growth will decline to 6.1% in the region (27 countries of
Eastern and Central Europe and Central Asia, as well as Turkey and
Mongolia), while CIS countries rich in resources will be the most
rapidly developing region.

According to the report, it is expected that in 2008 the average
economic growth will make 7% in the CIS and Mongolia, 6.5% in Russia,
6% in Ukraine and 25% in Azerbaijan. It is forecast that inflation
will remain at a high level in the region. Particularly, inflation
continues to be one of the most alarming factors from the macroeconomic
point of view in Russia and Ukraine.

E. Berglof said that the results of surveys of 29 thousand households
from 29 countries cooperating with the EBRD were used in preparing
the indicated report. In his words, although Armenia is a leader among
CIS countries in terms of implementing economic reforms, the country
did not make much progress in this field in 2007. In particular,
there is much to be done for implementation of reforms in the state
governance system. In the opinion of EBRD experts, the country’s
authorities should take steps to encourage competition in the import
sector, improve the economic legislation, increase the independence
of the mass media, promote diversification of the economy and increase
access to educational and health-care services.

The EBRD expert added that the appreciation of the Armenian dram
and the considerable inflow of remittances are not conducive to
diversification of the Armenian economy and the financing of the real
sector with resources of the domestic financial market.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress