Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Feb. 26, 2008
ARMENIA IN TURMOIL AFTER PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PRAISED BY WEST
By Emil Danielyan
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Armenian Prime Minister and President-Elect Serge Sarkisian Armenia
is facing its most serious political crisis in years in the wake of
the February 19 presidential election that was controversially won by
Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian. Tens of thousands of supporters of
his main challenger, former president Levon Ter-Petrosian, have been
holding daily rallies in Yerevan to protest against what they see as
massive vote rigging and to demand a re-run of the vote. The Armenian
authorities have responded to the protests by arresting at least
three opposition leaders and threatening to use force against the
demonstrators.
According to the official vote results released by the
government-controlled Central Election Commission (CEC) on February
24, Sarkisian won 52.8% of the vote, enough to avoid a risky run-off
with Ter-Petrosian. The latter was shown winning only 21.5%, followed
by two other major candidates, former parliament speaker Artur
Baghdasarian (16.7%) and Vahan Hovannisian (6.1%) of the
pro-establishment Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF). Of the
three Sarkisian challengers only Hovannisian conceded defeat,
resigning as deputy speaker of the Armenian parliament. But even he
called the election deeply flawed.
The record-high voter turnout of 70% reported by the CEC is enough to
raise questions about the credibility of the official results. With a
large part of Armenia’s 2.3 million eligible voters living abroad and
therefore unable to vote, the figure means that at least 80% and
possibly 90% of the country’s adult population went to the polls on
February 19. This was clearly not the case.
It was arguably the most violent election ever held in Armenia, with
dozens of Ter-Petrosian proxies reportedly beaten and even kidnapped
on polling day. There were also reports of widespread ballot box
stuffing and vote buying. As was the case during previous Armenian
elections, busloads of bribed voters could be seen outside many
polling stations in Yerevan and other parts of the country. Many of
them were reportedly provided with false documents to cast multiple
ballots for Sarkisian. An RFE/RL reporter witnessed such a scene
outside Sarkisian’s campaign office in Yerevan’s Zeytun district
(RFE/RL Armenia Report, February 19).
More evidence of fraud emerged during ballot recounts in some of
Armenia’s more than 1,900 electoral precincts. Sarkisian was found to
have received fewer votes there than were reported by the local
election commissions. It is little wonder that the CEC made sure that
the recounts are not conducted nationwide. There were also glaring
discrepancies between some precinct-level vote protocols and figures
contained in the CEC vote tally.
Yet if one is to believe Western observers representing the OSCE, the
Council of Europe, and the European Union, the Armenian authorities
administered the presidential ballot `mostly in accordance’ with
democratic standards. In their preliminary report issued on February
20, the observers said they found no major violation in `a large
majority’ of polling stations visited by them. The report noted at
the same time `a lack of public confidence in the electoral process.’
It did not explain why a supposedly democratic election would
generate such popular sentiment and be seen as fraudulent not only by
the Armenian opposition but also by much of civil society.
The observers’ findings, which have been endorsed by the European
Union and the United States, essentially legitimize the transfer of
power from outgoing President Robert Kocharian to his longtime chief
lieutenant in the eyes of the international community. The West and
the United States in particular are clearly unwilling to undercut
Armenia’s two top leaders, who seem to have agreed to a resolution of
the Karabakh conflict proposed by the U.S., French, and Russian
mediators. During their most recent trip to Yerevan and Baku in
January, the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group came away from
their talks with Kocharian quite satisfied. (Ironically, Kocharian
and Sarkisian had forced Ter-Petrosian to step down in 1998 for
advocating essentially the same peace deal.)
For many Armenians, that is not sufficient grounds for accepting the
legitimacy of a leader whom they did not elect. Tens of thousands of
them have been rallying in Yerevan’s Liberty Square on a daily basis
to back Ter-Petrosian’s demands for a repeat election. The most
diehard supporters of the ex-president set up a tent camp in the
square on February 20 and have since been holding overnight vigils
there in scenes reminiscent of Ukraine’s Western-backed Orange
Revolution. Ter-Petrosian, who has pledged to `fight to the end,’
hopes that the popular pressure will grow in the coming days and
force the ruling regime to cave in.
In the first sign of cracks emerging within the regime, Armenia’s
Deputy Prosecutor-General Gagik Jahangirian delivered a fiery speech
at Liberty Square on February 22 and called Ter-Petrosian the
rightful winner of the presidential ballot. Also alleging election
fraud and voicing support for the former president were ten senior
Armenian diplomats, including Deputy Foreign Minister Arman
Bayburtian and Armenia’s ambassadors to Italy and Kazakhstan.
Jahangirian, Bayburtian, and both ambassadors quickly lost their jobs
as Kocharian and Sarkisian went on a counteroffensive on February 23,
calling the opposition actions a coup attempt in emergency meetings
with top army generals and police and National Security Service
officials. Kocharian was quoted by his office as ordering them to
take `drastic’ measures to restore `law and order’ in the country
(Statements by the presidential press service, February 23). That was
followed by the weekend arrests of Jahangirian and two other top
Ter-Petrosian allies. Kocharian also issued a stern warning to Manvel
Grigorian, a top army general and deputy defense minister whose
Yerkrapah Union of Armenian veterans of the Karabakh war has pledged
allegiance to the former president.
Ter-Petrosian appears to be undaunted by these developments, joking
and dancing with his loyalists spending their nights in Liberty
Square. Ter-Petrosian assured the 30,000 that had gathered there on
January 24 that Kocharian and Sarkisian are `not crazy’ enough to use
force against them. The 63-year-old former scholar, who made a
dramatic political comeback last September after an almost decade of
silence, had already come to power on the back of the 1988 popular
movement for Karabakh’s unification with Armenia. Whether he can
bring down a stronger and more ruthless regime should be clear in the
coming days.