What the Papers Say (Russia)
February 20, 2008 Wednesday

ARMENIA ON THE BRINK OF CONFRONTATION;
Presidential candidates call on supporters to protest

by Yuri Simonian

Reports from the presidential election in Armenia; A presidential
election took place in Armenia yesterday. There were nine candidates
in all, with two favorites: Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian and former
president Levon Ter-Petrosian. The election outcome may be decided in
the first round of voting.

A presidential election took place in Armenia yesterday. There were
nine candidates in all, with two favorites: Prime Minister Serge
Sarkisian and former president Levon Ter-Petrosian. The Armenian
Central Electoral Commission will announce the preliminary results
today.

Commentators in Yerevan aren’t ruling out the possibility that the
election outcome may be decided in the first round of voting – if
Sarkisian gets 50% plus one vote. His main rival, Ter-Petrosian,
might even finish third or fourth rather than second. In that event,
given that the other candidates who finish ahead of Ter-Petrosian are
unlikely to challenge the results, any protests from Ter-Petrosian
could be dismissed as groundless.

Ter-Petrosian himself, who voted early yesterday morning, is
confident of victory – if not in the first round, then certainly in
the second. He told us: "I have no doubt that I will succeed. My
people are keeping an eye on the situation at polling-stations, and
the authorities won’t be able to manipulate ballot-papers in any
blatant or large-scale way."

Outgoing President Robert Kocharian and his preferred candidate,
Sarkisian, are also confident. They’re planning to celebrate
Sarkisian’s victory with a large rally. Armenia’s capital has also
been swept by rumors of special task force soldiers being transferred
>From Nagorno-Karabakh to Yerevan just before the election; both
Kocharian and Sarkisian are originally from the unrecognized
republic. And rumor has it that the Yerkrapa (Defender of the
Fatherland) volunteer militia is prepared to support Ter-Petrosian.

Before the election, President Kocharian warned that any attempt to
destabilize the situation would be prevented. Ter-Petrosian parried
this unambiguous threat with a compliment: "That’s right. If I were
president, I’d say the same. We have no intention of breaking the
law."

Numerous international observers, including observers from CIS
countries, have been present in Armenia for the presidential
election; they have not recorded any significant violations capable
of affecting the election outcome – at least, none had been reported
as we went to print. The same cannot be said of Armenian activists.

As we reported earlier, it was decided that no exit polls would be
done, in order to avoid raising tension. At the last moment, however,
it was revealed that two non-governmental organizations would be
approaching voters after all. Armenian analysts maintain that these
surveys can be dismissed, since neither of the NGOs in question has
the experience or resources to do proper exit polls; and one of them
has been commissioned by the pro-government Public Television and
Radio Corporation, making its results predictable.

Ashot Melikian, chairman of the Free Speech Protection Committee: "We
can’t say anything for certain. Even in our organization, for
example, voter preferences turned out to be divided. How Yerevan
votes is very important – but I think the fate of this election will
largely be decided in the regions."

The Armenian Central Electoral Commission is scheduled to announce
preliminary results no later than 8 p.m. today, and final results by
February 26.

Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, No. 33, February 20, 2008, p. 8

Translated by Elena Leonova