Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
Feb. 25, 2008

Ariel Cohen: Kosovo’s independence may push Moscow toward Armenia in
supporting Nagorno-Karabakh

[ 25 Feb 2008 13:49 ]

Washington. Husniyya Hasanova – APA. Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., Senior
Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, commented on the
recognition of Kosovo’s independence and its influence on Nagorno
Karabakh conflict to APA’s US bureau.

`Russia has made Kosovo a major issue in its relations with the West.
President Vladimir Putin and other Russia policy makers, anxious to
find points of confrontation with Europe and US, have demanded that
the Kosovo issue would be decided in the UN Security Council, where
Russia (and China) has a veto power. Russia may retaliate by
recognizing independence of Abkhazia, which is part of Georgia, and
of South Ossetia. It may also tilt toward Armenia in supporting
Nagorno-Karabakh. If that will be the case, the tension between
Azerbaijan and Armenia may drastically rise. The West should clarify
to the authorities of Russia, Armenia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and
Karabakh, that declarations of independence will remain unrecognized,
and that steps to the contrary will meet with counter- actions. For
example, countries which recognize these enclaves may have their
diplomatic representations reduced and economic aid reviewed.
Russia’s position has three roots. First, it Russia views itself as a
historic ally of Serbia. After all, it was because of this
relationship the czarist Russia has declared war on Austro-Hungarian
Empire in World War I, and ended up in collapse.
Secondly, Russia would like to be an "indispensable power" in
deciding major issues in Europe and in the world. Therefore, any
solution that does not meet with Moscow’s approval is to be opposed.
Thirdly, there is the issue of international law. Moscow claims that
only the UN Security Council should be allowed to recognize new
states, as the UN Charter claims. Moreover, Russia, which is the host
country to a number of secessionist and separatist movements,
predominantly Muslim, does not want to see this successful precedent
on its doorstep. Moscow does not want the criteria applied to Kosovo,
to be applied to Chechnya and other Islamic lands in North Caucasus.
Russia is suspicious that Kosovo independence is recognized based on
intimidation and armed struggle of the Kosovars and on Europe’s fears
that it must capitulate to their threats. Dozens of separatist
movements in the world, from the Abkhaz to the Kurds, from Karen in
Burma to Uyghurs in China, would be encouraged by the example of
Kosovars. Albanians, Russia points out, already have one state which
is a UN member. Now they will have two, and with the future success
of Albanians in Macedonia, they may end up with three. Finally, both
Belgrade and Moscow say that the West should support a democratic
Serbia, not criminalized and militaristic Kosovars.
Repercussions over the Kosovo conflict will surely poison relations
between Russia and the West for years to come,’ Ariel Cohen said.