EXPERTS SAY ARMENIA MAY FACE ‘ORANGE REVOLUTION’

Trend News Agency
Feb 28 2008
Azerbaijan

Russia, Moscow, 27 February /Trend News corr R. Agayev/ Legitimacy
of the newly elected Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan is questionable.

"Though such figures as 53%- which he received in the elections seem
to be imposing, evidently, there was a plenty of violations as well.

Anyway, when the Prosecutor of the country says that, and then,
he is immediately murdered, that means a lot," the Russian expert
Aleksey Malashenko said.

The main opposition candidate, ex-President Levon Ter Petrosyan accused
the Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan, who received 53% of the votes at
the presidential elections on 19 February, of gerrymandering. Protest
demonstration, hunger-strikes are held in Yerevan as a protest.

According to the Panorama Am, speaking on 22 February at the
opposition demonstration, the Deputy Prosecutor General of Armenia
Gagik Dzhangiryan called on the people to stand up for their votes
and said that he had never seen such great elections falsification.

Very Next day he was fired.

The Russian political scientist is confident that the matter is not
clannish struggle or intrigues, but the public just realizes that the
elections held are far from ideal, and therefore the opposition has a
chance to exert great influence upon the current authorities, even if
not turn the situation by 180 decrees. "It is difficult to say what
will be the results, because Armenia, taking into consideration that
it has a civil society and some elements of democracy, is a rather
emotional country. It is well-known that a skirmish took place at the
Armenian Parliament. So, we are to expect the most unexpected things.

Moreover, we cannot see Sargsyan’s helping hand extended to the
opposition," Aleksey Malashenko, a member of the Moscow Carnegie
Centre’s Scientific Council, told Trend News on 27 February.

The expert does not rule out that the situation in Armenia may
face an ‘orange revolution’ like in Georgia or Armenia. He says the
chances are 50 – 50, through he considers it tactless to use the word
‘revolution’. "That will also depend on the behaviour of Sargsyan,
who does not show an adequate reaction for the things happening
around. The Armenian opposition has a good chance to get consolidated
and lead a great number of well organized people outwards".

According to the Central Election Commission, Serzh Sargsyan, the
head of the Republican Party, won the elections with 52.82% of votes.

The ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosyan took the second place (21.5%).

Since 20 February, Yerevan has been facing demonstrations,
rally-marches, as well as sitting student protests organized by
the opposition. The organizers and participants protest against the
results of the elections.