NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES ARE SKEPTICAL OF REVOLUTION IN ARMENIA: FIVE EXPERTS
TREND News Agency
March 4 2008
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan, Baku, 3 March / corr. TrendNews R. Agayev, R. Hafizoglu,
D. Khatinoglu, A. Gasimova, N.Kirtskhlia / Experts of .neighboring
countries of Armenia do not rule out e destabilization of the
situation in the country even after the curfew and are skeptical of the
possible revolution. If there were plans to make an orange revolution
in Armenia, then the police and government would have faced with a
fitting rebuff while dispersing the demonstration, Sergey Merkedonov,
the renowned Russian expert said.
The President of Armenia Robert Kocharyan decreed on 2 March to
impose a state of emergency for 20 days after the demonstration of
the opposition against the false outcome of the election that lasted
for many days flared into a confrontation with the police. According
to the Health Ministry of Armenia of 3 March, the general number of
those injured during the clashes in Yerevan on 1 and 2 March totaled
131 and 8 people were shot dead.
"There is no doubt that the majority is dissatisfied with the Armenian
government, but it is not the critical mass that could make an orange
revolution," Markedonov, the head of Department for the International
Relation Problems of the Institute of the Political and Military
Analysis of Russia said.
According to the expert, the Armenian government should learn a
lesson from the latest developments and if the government will go
on using force, it will not be to its favor; however, if some of the
demands by the opposition can be taken into account, then the danger
of orange revolution could be averted. "The complicated situation in
Armenia is attributed to the fact that the government and opposition
are not prepared to cooperate with discussions at the moment,"
the political scientist said. "We do not know who stands behind the
latest developments in Armenia as we do not have access to certain
documents at the moment. Both the government and the opposition are
to be blamed," he said.
Markedonov said that disorder took place in Armenia in 1996 as well
when Ter-Petrosyan won the presidential elections and the opposition
candidate Vazgen Manukyan organized mass demonstrations. According to
Markedonov, similar developments took place in Azerbaijan in 2003 and
in Tbilisi in January 2008. "As for the human victims, this aggravates
the general situation which is typical of the post-soviet space as
in the case of Kyrgyzstan," Mammadov said.
The Turkish expert Arif Keskin said that Armenia is the ground where
the interests of Europe and Russia clash and it is impossible to
make a revolution in the country. "It is impossible to presume a
revolution as the Armenian people are more pro-Russian rather than
pro-western. In general, the population of Armenia is not ready
for the orange revolution that took place in Ukraine and Georgia,"
Kaskin, the expert of the Eurasian Center of the Strategic Studies
said to TrendNews on a telephone from Ankara on 3 March.
The Iranian expert Hasan Shariatmadari said that the government in
Armenia cannot be overthrown which related with Russia and it is
impossible to hold independent elections in the country. According
to the expert, the re-run of independent elections in Armenia is
inevitable. "If United States supports the opposition which is under
Russian influence indirectly and pressure from the opposition to the
government will be consistent, the re-run of the elections with the
participation of international experts may be the final way out of the
tension," Shariatmadari said to TrendNews on 3 March on a telephone
from Berlin.
Azerbaijani expert Rasim Musabayov said that the latest developments
in Armenia simply are the wish of the government to draw out its
existence by false means. "There is no secret context here," Musabayov
said to TrendNews on 3 March. Concerning the possibility of the orange
revolution in Armenia, Musabayov said that there are already 8 dead
in Armenia, but the orange revolution is the peaceful replacement of
the current regime.
Ramaz Sakvarelidzeh, the Georgian political scientist said that the
confrontations that took place in Armenian society were at its peak
within the last few days. "The people are dissatisfied with the
political elite. On top of it all the Armenian Diaspora, who have
a strong influence on the Armenian society also expressed their
dissatisfaction," Sakarelidzeh said to TrendNews in Tbilisi on 3 March.
In this case if the government will not take serious measures, the
confrontations will cause further aggravation, he said. "However I
do not think that the conflict will erupt into armed confrontation
and civil conflict the expert said. "The developments in Armenia are
less likely to have an impact on regional security," Sakarelidzeh said.
There have been opposition demonstrations and sit-down strikes
in Yerevan since 20 February. Organizers of the demonstrations are
dissatisfied with the outcome of the presidential elections held on 19
February announced by the Central Election Commission. Serj Sarkisyan,
the candidate from the government and prime minister won the elections
by polling 52% of the votes. Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the former president
of Armenia came second in the elections with 21.5% of the votes