AZERI EXPERT BELIEVES LATEST KARABAKH CLASH UNLIKELY TO ESCALATE

Day.Az
March 5 2008
Azerbaijan

Commenting on a recent clash on the contact line in the breakaway
region of Nagornyy Karabakh, an Azerbaijani military expert has said
that Armenia provoked the clash to pacify the domestic political
situation in Armenia. Uzeyir Cafarov said he did not think the clash
would escalate into an open military confrontation. The following is
the text of the interview entitled: "The Azerbaijani side must deal
a severe rebuff to the enemy", published on the Day.az web site on
5 March; subheadings have been inserted editorially:

Counter-terrorist operation

[Correspondent] What can you say about yesterday’s clash on the
contact line?

[Cafarov] If you do not hit, you will be hit. When it became known that
Kurdish militants were being deployed on the occupied territories,
Azerbaijan had to carry out a counter-terrorist operation. Today,
when the domestic political situation in Armenia has reached its
peak, the Armenian authorities have provoked a military confrontation
at the contact line in order to shift the public’s attention from
domestic political processes to the front line. It should be pointed
out that in yesterday’s clash the sides did not use heavy equipment
and artillery. The Armenian side used machine guns and grenade
throwers to quite a considerable extent, conducting sustained fire
on Azerbaijani positions.

Both sides have sustained losses, but this doesn’t mean that the enemy
has been given a fitting response. The Azerbaijani side must deal a
severe rebuff to the enemy. Moreover, the command must also take into
consideration the fact that the Armenian side usually steps up its
activities during March in connection with the Novruz festivities. Such
a situation occurred a few years ago when the Azerbaijani armed forces
occupied several enemy heights in the Qazax area.

[Correspondent] How can a counter-terrorist operation be carried out
if Armenian armed formations are deployed on the occupied Azerbaijani
territories?

[Cafarov] Azerbaijan has sufficient power to conduct a
counter-terrorist operation. It doesn’t have to engage in an open
attack. All it had to do was to send a reconnaissance and sabotage
group to the areas where Kurdish militant bases are located. It
could also have inflicted precision strikes on militant bases because
Azerbaijan has precise information about their deployment area. The
Israeli special services have provided the Azerbaijani authorities
with photographs of the location of Kurdish militant bases.

The leading powers, in particular the US, have condemned the deployment
of terrorists in Nagornyy Karabakh. This has given Azerbaijan the
right to carry out a counter-terrorist operation.

Open confrontation "unrealistic"

[Correspondent] How realistic is an open military confrontation at
this moment in time?

[Cafarov] It is quite unrealistic. I do not believe that the clash
will continue. What happened today was aimed at pacifying the
domestic political situation in Armenia. Official Yerevan, taking
into consideration the difficult situation, will not risk anything by
intensifying the clash. And the Azerbaijani side will not be allowed
to switch to an aggressive military operation. The most the Azerbaijani
side can do is to force the enemy to sustain losses in manpower.

[Correspondent] Do you think the Azerbaijani armed forces will be
able to take advantage of the situation, to switch to a counter-attack
and win back the commanding positions from the enemy?

[Cafarov] There is no logic in that. Why switch to an offensive to
capture commanding heights? If only it had been a matter of liberating
occupied villages and districts. The dominating heights have for a
long time been occupied first by one side then the other.

Engineering works have been carried out to strengthen them. And there
is no point in capturing them. In recent years the positions of the
sides have been redeployed several times. Positions are being changed
all the time.

[Correspondent] Can you say what will be the reaction of international
organizations, in particular, the Minsk group of the OSCE [Organization
of Security and Cooperation in Europe] to this incident?

[Cafarov] The personal representative of the OSCE Andrzej Kasprzyk,
who is monitoring the contact line, always reports that no incidents
have been recorded. And that will be his reaction this time, too. One
cannot expect any special statements from international organizations.

[Correspondent] How combat-effective is the Armenian army today?

[Cafarov] It is difficult to answer that question. An army’s combat
effectiveness is decided during combat operations, which have not
happened for the past 14 years. In the personnel and materiel sense,
the Azerbaijani side is much superior to the Armenian armed forces.