EX-SOVIET ARMENIA SPLIT OVER BLOODY PROTESTS
by Antoine Lambroschini

Agence France Presse — English
March 4, 2008 Tuesday 1:23 AM GMT

Ex-Soviet Armenia is deeply split following bloody post-election unrest
and may face years of instability if a solution is not found quickly,
analysts said.

"Armenia is facing its most difficult political situation since
its independence" in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union,
independent political analyst David Petrosian said.

Riot police clashed Saturday with thousands of protesters who
had rallied for 11 consecutive days against Prime Minister Serzh
Sarkisian’s win in a February 19 presidential election.

Despite the leading Western observer mission saying the vote had
mostly met international standards, protesters claimed the election
was rigged to ensure Sarkisian’s victory over opposition leader and
former president Levon Ter-Petrosian.

Seven civilians and one police officer were killed as police fired
tear gas and live ammunition into the air and protesters fought back
with petrol bombs, sticks and stones. Dozens were injured, many from
gunshot wounds.

Outgoing President Robert Kocharian ordered a 20-day state of emergency
following the unrest, banning public demonstrations and censoring
the news.

While many in the capital Yerevan had been expecting police to crack
down on protesters, ordinary Armenians were stunned by the scale of
the clashes and death toll.

"Polarisation in Armenian society is now very deep. And after this
level of violence it will be very challenging for all sides to bring
the situation back to normal," said Magdalena Frichova, the Caucasus
director for the International Crisis Group think tank.

"It’s extremely difficult to predict what will happen next."

This mountainous country of about three million people — wedged
between Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran and Turkey — is no stranger to
political turbulence.

In 1999, armed gunmen stormed parliament and killed seven high-ranking
officials, including the prime minister.

Nearly every election since independence has been followed by mass
protests and Ter-Petrosian himself sent tanks into the streets to
quell demonstrations following his re-election in 1996.

But recent events have marked a new level of tension.

"Refusing to recognize the results of elections and protests are part
of Armenian political culture," analyst Alexander Iskandarian of the
Caucasus Media Institute said.

"But Saturday’s riots marked a new peak…. Ter-Petrosian is becoming
more and more radical and wants nothing less than the presidency,"
he said.

Analysts said that with no signs Ter-Petrosian is ready to back down,
it’s unclear how the country will emerge from political deadlock.

Authorities have already arrested some of the opposition’s leadership,
including two lawmakers on charges of attempting a coup d’etat.

But short of making large-scale arrests, tens of thousands of
disgruntled Ter-Petrosian supporters will remain deeply opposed to
Sarkisian’s leadership, analysts said

Much will depend, analysts said, on how the international community
responds to the recent unrest.

After initially backing the vote, the Organisation for Security and
Cooperation in Europe may choose to be more harsh in a final election
report due very soon, Petrosian said.

A negative report could give the opposition fresh ammunition to
challenge the result, he said, while continued backing for the election
could convince the opposition it has no hope.

"Everything depends on the international community," Petrosian said.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress