Trend News Agency, Azerbaijan
March 7 2008

Armenia Facing `Elite Factions’ Confrontation – American Expert
07.03.08 11:24

Azerbaijan, Baku, 6 March /Trend News corr A. Gasimova/ American
expert Jeff Mankoff said the real divide in Armenia seems to be
between different factions of the elite rather than between different
ideas of how the state should develop. `In the long run, the Armenian
government faces a lot of same pressures that led to coloured
revolutions elsewhere (poverty, poor governance, corruption), but for
now the real divide seems to be between different factions of the
elite rather than between different ideas of how the state should
develop,’ Jeff Mankoff, a fellow at the Olin Institute for Strategic
Studies at Harvard University and a writer for the History News
Service told Trend News via e-mail on 6 March.

After violent suppression of the demonstration, many oppositionists
were arrested, and their fate is still unknown.

According to Mankoff, the opposition’s refusal to recognize the
results of an election, which was largely endorsed by international
observers, was an irresponsible step. `Democratic government only
works if the losers accept their loss, but are also guaranteed the
opportunity to try again in the next election. In Armenia, the
government made the situation worse by using force against largely
peaceful protesters and arresting members of the opposition,’ he
said.

`The chances are less since Baghdasarian agreed to join the
government,’ he said. Bagdasarian is the leader of the Orinats Erkir
party. On 29 February, he agreed to the authorities’ call to
establish a coalition government and was appointed the National
Defence Secretary.

`For that reason, a revolution in Armenia could look more like what
happened in Kyrgyzstan than what happened in Ukraine or Georgia’.

On 19 February, Armenia held presidential elections. According to the
final results of the Armenian Central Election Commission, Serzh
Sargsyan, the head of the Republican Party, won the elections with
52.82% of votes (862,369). The ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosyan took
the second place (21.5%).

Since 20 February, Yerevan has been facing demonstrations,
rally-marches, as well as sitting student protests organized by the
opposition. The organizers and participants protest against the
results of the elections. According to the Armenian Health Ministry,
the number of the victims of riots, which took place in Yerevan on 1
March, has totalled 131, and 8 of them died from gunshot wounds.