Day.Az, Azerbaijan
March 7 2008

Azeri pundit blames Armenia for recent tension in Karabakh

[Correspondent] What do you think is the reason for the latest
outbreak of tension in the zone of the Nagornyy Karabakh
confrontation, the first for many years?

[Ilqar Mammadov] In my view there are two factors that have played a
decisive role here. The only question is which is the more
significant. The first is [Armenian President Robert] Kocharyan’s
desire to deflect the attention of the public in his country, as well
as the international public, from the lawlessness which he caused at
the elections and continues to do by imposing a state of emergency.

The second factor is linked with the fact that the adoption of
decisions on the Nabucco energy project, or rather Azerbaijan and
Turkmenistan signing up to it, is at a critical stage. The Europeans
have a strong vested interest in stable gas supplies. The USA,
though, is trying to talk the Europeans out of buying gas from the
Russian Southern Stream project, which is an alternative to the
Central Asian one.

Moscow has a very strong interest in discrediting our region as a
reliable source and a transit region for gas. And it was precisely at
this critical moment, when strategic decisions on Nabucco and ways of
supplying it with Central Asian gas are being taken, that it was
extremely beneficial to Moscow that the Europeans look at the
viability of the idea in the light of the threat of a resumption of
the Karabakh conflict. It is quite possible that Moscow, which has
broad possibilities in Armenia’s power-wielding structures, could
deliberately embark on such a provocation.

[correspondent] To what extent have these two factors been justified,
i.e. to what degree have Yerevan and Moscow been able to achieve
their objectives?

[Mammadov] In any event, Moscow has got closer to its objective than
Kocharyan has. Generally speaking, it is above suspicion. As far as
Kocharyan is concerned, everyone realizes that Azerbaijan has no
serious interest in a resumption of hostilities right now and the
criticism of the international public is aimed directly at the
Armenian president.

[correspondent] Your opinion of Moscow’s possible role in what is
happening is quite an interesting one, especially bearing in mind
that the majority of political experts are inclined to believe that
the incident on the contact line was merely an insinuation of the
Armenian authorities. By the way, how justified is the opinion of
some Armenian observers that Azerbaijan, like Armenia at one time,
has decided to play the Karabakh card, using the instability of its
neighbour’s domestic political situation?

[Mammadov] I repeat, right now Baku has no interest in risking a
resumption of hostilities. Azerbaijan is only just beginning to
obtain the huge profits that have long since been promised by the oil
contracts. If full-scale hostilities start now, then Armenia will
attack, first and foremost, Azerbaijan’s oil infrastructure and our
country could then be deprived of those advantages it is gaining
every day from the extraction and sale of oil.

[correspondent] How do you see this incident being resolved?

[Mammadov] If the arguments which create the two factors I have
mentioned remain so convincing then a repeat of this sort of thing on
the front line and even an escalation of the conflict are very
likely. But perhaps Moscow has achieved its main objective, which is
to intimidate European gas consumers.

It now remains to be seen how much Kocharyan has achieved. By that I
mean the effect of news from the front on public opinion in Armenia
and the world. If the active violation of the cease-fire regime suits
the incumbent Armenian president, then it could happen again.
However, without serious guarantees of security from Moscow, Armenia
will not embark on escalating tension.