DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
March 7, 2008 Friday
PUTINISM WITHOUT PUTIN
by Bairamova
WILL RUSSIA NORMALIZE RELATIONS WITH NEIGHBORS UNDER THE NEW
PRESIDENT?; An exclusive interview with political scientist Sergei
Markedonov, Chief of the Department of Ethic Relations of the
Political and Military Analysis Institute.
Question: What is your opinion of the recent election of the Russian
president? Would you say Dmitry Medvedev polled this broad support in
society or was the election rigged as other candidates for president
appear to believe?
Sergei Markedonov: Even if the election was rigged, it does not
really matter. I mean, it did not change anything. Not one of the
politicians who ran against Medvedev enjoys any significant
popularity. That’s what counts.
Question: What awaits Russia under President Medvedev? Any changes in
the Kremlin’s foreign and domestic policy, perhaps?
Sergei Markedonov: I’d separate the two, you know. If Russia wants
the status quo in the Commonwealth these days, nothing is going to
change regardless of who is the president – Putin, Medvedev,or anyone
else. As for Medvedev’s domestic policy, I expect it will be
something like Putinism without Putin. Or Light Putinism, if you
prefer.
Question: Unlike his predecessor Yeltsin, Putin succeeded in the
normalization of relations with Azerbaijan. All the same,
Russian-Azerbaijani relations are less cordial now than they were
before. Do you expect their improvement?
Sergei Markedonov: I suspect that our relations with Azerbaijan will
depend on the shape of Russian-Georgian relations. Improving the
latter, we will improve the former. And so will the Russian-Armenian
relations, too. Georgia is the key player in this part of the world.
Russia had better think about what it should do to address the
problems that mar our relations with this country and what to offer
as a painless solution to them. Also importantly, there is more to
the matter than South Ossetia and Abkhazia. I’m talking about Georgia
because deterioration of Russian-Azerbaijani relations began when
Baku wouldn’t follow in the wake of the energy policy that benefited
Moscow alone. Moscow took offense, and its relations with Baku
soured.
Question: Do you think Medvedev will succeed in the normalization of
Russian-Georgian relations?
Sergei Markedonov: I don’t think Medvedev has any clear concept of
the future policy with regard to Georgia at this point.
Question: Unlike Armenia that remains Russia’s bulwark in the region,
Azerbaijan promotes an independent policy. Is it possible for the
Kremlin to reconsider its options with regard to countries of the
southern part of the Caucasus? Is it possible for it to take a firm
stand on the matter of Nagorno-Karabakh and thus bind Azerbaijan to
it the way it once did with Armenia?
Sergei Markedonov: As a matter of fact, Armenia is promoting the
policy that suits it. All these speculations on how Armenia is a
puppet with strings stretching into Moscow are false premises.
Question: The matter concerns Russia’s political clout with Armenia.
Armenia did look north in the matter of recognition of Kosovo,
correct?
Sergei Markedonov: I wouldn’t call Russia’s and Armenia’s stand on
the Kosovo issue identical, you know. What statements we hear from
Moscow are firmly against the recognition of Kosovo as a sovereign
state. The Armenias are more cautious with words.
Question: And yet, do you think Russia might decide one day to play
the Nagorno-Karabakh card and draw Azerbaijan in?
Sergei Markedonov: I do not think that it will. What Russia needs is
a compromise that would satisfy all involved parties. What it does
not need is another war in the region.
Question: Medvedev has already promised that his first visit in the
presidential capacity will be to a country of the Commonwealth. It
was the Ukraine last time. What now?
Sergei Markedonov: It depends on when. It depends on the political
situation at the moment. I wouldn’t even rule out surprises. For
example, he may choose Georgia. By and large, a visit to Tbilisi
won’t commit Medvedev to anything. He may visit Tbilisi but remain in
support of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. No obligations like I said,
but the PR effect will be considerable.
Source: Marketing and Consulting news agency, March 4, 2008, EV