US Leans on Caspian Pipeline Partners
March 07 – 2008
( 216&l=3Dru&s=3Df&o=3D343216)
Washingt on is working to end disputes between Turkmenistan and
Azerbaijan in the hopeof getting a major new pipeline project moving.
United States diplomat Steven Mann flew into Turkmenistan for the
second time this year on February 28, on a mission to get the Central
State firmly behind the planned Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline, TCGP.
When the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State met President
Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov in Ashgabat, energy issues were at the top
of the agenda.
Washington wants to see Ashgabat actively committed to building a
pipeline that would for the first time bring Central Asian gas to the
West without going through Russia.
Mann has been alternating visits to Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, which
lies on the other side of the Caspian Sea and would be another key
project participant. Three days before flying to Ashgabat, the
diplomat was in the Azerbaijani capital Baku, where a tender for a
feasibility study for TCGP has already taken place.
The proposed pipeline would stretch almost 2,000 kilometres from
Turkmenistan under the Caspian Sea floor to Turkey.
There it would connect up to the planned Nabucco pipeline, which is
intended to run from Turkey to Austria via Bulgaria, Romania and
Hungary.
TCGP would be capable of carrying 30-32 billion cubic metres of
natural gas a year, most of it from Turkmen and Azerbaijani deposits.
The idea for a gas pipeline circumventing Russia was first floated in
1998, but has not been implemented so far.
There are several reasons for this, one of which is that the Kremlin,
the main buyer of Turkmen hydrocarbons and owner of the only major gas
pipeline out of Central Asia, has actively opposed the project.
Iran, too, is against a western pipeline being laid close to its
territory, especially as the Caspian’s waters have yet to be finally
demarcated among littoral states.
Finally, there is the unresolved dispute between Turkmenistan and
Azerbaijan over who owns a large offshore field which the Azerbaijanis
call Kapaz and the Turkmen call Serdar.
This ownership dispute will only be finally resolved when the status
of the sea itself has been determined. All five littoral states –
Iran, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakstan and Russia – have different
visions ofhow this should be done.
Ashgabat and Baku have been particularly at loggerheads. Azerbaijan
favours a plan where a median line would be drawn down the centre of
the sea and individual national sectors then sliced up on either side
of it. That would give it an advantage in claiming oil deposits.
Turkmenistan, however, wants the sea to be divided in such a way as to
divide oil wells according to how close they are to national borders.
With concerted US diplomacy, observers believe the pipeline may
finally be about to get off the ground.
They say the time for a deal has never been more favourable, as Russia
is currently absorbed in domestic affairs, having just elected a new
president.
Mars Sariev, an NBCentral Asia political expert, said the US diplomat
had timed his latest visits to the region to coincide with a `power
paralysis’ in the Kremlin.
`Mann is taking advantage of the moment to exert pressure on Ashgabat
to resolve its disputes with Azerbaijan,’ he explained.
`Berdymuhammedov and [Azerbaijani president Ilham] Aliyev may be able
to reach a consensus under the aegis of the Americans and with [the
promise of] massive western investment.’
Sariev’s argument would appear to be backed up by the
inter-governmental talks between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan which
began in Baku on March 5.
Equally significantly, the foreign ministries of the two countries
have also started consulting on an official visit which the Turkmen
leader will pay to Azerbaijan in the first half of this year.
`By the time Berdymuhammedov visits Baku, the issue of the disputed
areas will have been solved in essence,’ predicted Sariev.
Rovshan Ibrahimov, an expert with the Turkey-based International
Strategic Research Organisation, also expects US diplomatic efforts to
play a role in bringing Baku and Ashgabat together.
`If these assumptions prove correct, the last obstacle will have been
cleared away for talks on the demarcation and status of the Caspian,
whichare essential to making TCGP a reality,’ he said.
Analysts predict US diplomacy could prompt a firmer Turkmen commitment
to the pipeline project.
Filling the future pipeline to capacity would require more natural gas
than is currently available, and Turkmenistan will need foreign
investment if it is to increase its extraction levels.
`The US could be a potential investor here,’ noted Ibrahimov.
(NBCentralAsia is an IWPR-funded project to create a multilingual news
analysis and comment service for Central Asia, drawing on the
expertise ofa broad range of political observers across the
region. The project ran from August 2006 to September 2007, covering
all five regional states. With new funding, the service is resuming,
covering only Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for the moment.)
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