AZERI EXPERT RULES OUT RESUMPTION OF HOSTILITIES IN KARABAKH

Day.Az
March 5 2008
Azerbaijan

5 March: In an interview with Day.az, Azerbaijani political expert
Rasim Musabayov has commented on an incident on the contact line
between the Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces in Nagornyy Karabakh
as a result of which several troops were killed from the both sides.

[Correspondent] What is your comment on the escalation of the situation
in the zone of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict as a result of which
both sides have losses?

[Musabayov] On the one hand, I believe that the activities of the
Armenian side, the [outgoing President Robert] Kocharyan regime, have
been aimed at switching the attention of the international community
from the severe repression of the opposition protests in Yerevan by
the Armenian authorities.

Moreover, I assess this as an attempt of the current Armenian
leadership to overcome domestic political crisis and consolidate the
Armenian public where animosity between representatives of Armenians
in Yerevan and those native of Karabakh has further deepened after
the riot police quelled the opposition protest [on 1 March].

[Correspondent] It is known from recent history that the current
Armenian leadership formerly also undertook various steps as a blind
for the international community from this or that domestic problems.

Why is this show staged exactly in Karabakh this time?

[Musabayov] Look at the district where the skirmishes took place.

This is the northern part of Nagornyy Karabakh, exactly the place where
from Armenians have been permanently threatening to attack and seize
that small part of Nagornyy Karabakh territory under our control,
including former Shaumyan district [part of Goranboy District],
which Armenians also consider being part of Nagornyy Karabakh.

At the same time, Armenians assume that the so-called "restoration" of
the control over the whole territory of Nagornyy Karabakh is completely
legal and should not cause resistance of the international community.

[Correspondent] How much is this plan practicable in the near future?

[Musabayov] I do not think this will happen. But I assume that the
Armenian leadership will nevertheless decide own tactical tasks first
of all, switching the attention of the international community from
domestic problems in Armenia.

[Correspondent] Does the Armenian leadership not risk terribly
while trying to decide domestic political problems at the expense
of escalation of the tension on the contact line of the troops in
Karabakh where even without this the unstable situation has been
observed recently?

[Musabayov] I want to once again express my confidence that the
incident on the front line in question now will not lead to the
resumption of the war in Karabakh.

On the other hand, the current domestic political situation in Armenia
is indeed serious. The opposition is threatening to resume the protest
actions, moreover, to do this permanently which cannot but worry the
country’s leadership. The authorities understand that if constant
"blood baths" are arranged for the opposition, then this path will
lead to an international isolation of Armenia.

Therefore, the Armenian authorities will try during the period of the
state of emergency to render harmless threats inside the country and
on the other hand, to obtain extra ideological support.