Fire Flares over Frozen Conflicts in the Caucasus

De Volkskrant
Dutch daily newspaper

11 March 2008

By our correspondent Arnout Brouwers

Background
Brussels and Washington are worried about increasing tensions in
Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia and Abkhazia
The independence of Kosovo opens ³the Pandora box² on the Caucasus

MOSCOW – Officially, it has nothing to do with the independence of Kosovo,
but the turmoil that has broken out in the ³Frozen conflicts² in the
Caucasus is watched with great worry by Brussels and Washington.

It began last week on the borders between Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh,
the Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan, which after the bloody fighting in the
nineties, now claims to be independent. The clashes were the worst since
many years. Western delegates hurried there to ask both parties to respect
the cease fire. They got that promise, but only after Azerbaijan had
threatened to solve the conflict "by means of force".

Then, Thursday, Russia poured oil on the fire of another smouldering
conflict by lifting ³all commercial restriction² in her trade with Abkhazia.
South Ossetia and Abkhazia are separatist regions in Georgia which are
propped up by Russian help. Georgia called it an ³extremely dangerous
provocation².

Russia has always warned that the independence of Kosovo will open ³the
Pandora box². Abkhazia and South Ossetia called on the international
community this week to recognize their independence. Moscow, however, did
not want to go this far.

The restoration of the full economic relations, which practically are
closely-knit, is an intermediate step that serves Russia¹s own interests.
Russia is going to organize the 2014 Olympic Winter games in Sochi, a city
that lies near the border with Abkhazia. By the decision taken this week,
Abkhazia can be brought in to assist in the construction of Olympic
facilities. According to Georgia, this will open the door to delivery of
weapons to Abkhazian separatists and to the strengthening of Russian
presence in Abkhazia.

While the Georgian ³frozen conflicts² were being heated up, the western
delegations were busy quelling the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. Matthew Bryza of
America and Simmons of NATO, turned up there quickly to hold parties back
>From new ³large-scale incidents². Also the British John Prescott flew to
Armenia on behalf of the Council of Europe in connection with the state of
emergency that has been put in force after the government last week made a
bloody end to the protests by the opposition.

It appears that due to the tension in the Caucasus, the Western Real-politic
is winning over the promotion of democracy. In January, the western
countries endorsed the re-election of Sahakashvili in Georgia despite
indications pointing to election fraud. Likewise, after heavy-handed ending
of the demonstrations in Armenia, it was conspicuously silent on the western
front.

The demonstrations had been organized by the opposition to protest against
election fraud that brought Kocharian’s ally to power. Western observers
mentioned irregularities; nonetheless they endorsed the outcome of
elections.

³Armenia is such a rare case where the western and the Russian observers
share the same opinion, a Ukrainian commentator wrote. He also affirmed that
the time for colour revolutions (nick name for popular street revolutions in
Ukraine and Georgia in 2003) seemed to be over.

While the state of emergency is still in force in Armenia and many
opposition politicians have been arrested, Sahakashvili called on the
Georgian opposition to unity because of the existence of foreign threat. The
opposition went, instead, to the streets in protest against his ³falsified²
victory and the leaders of the opposition went on hunger strike.

Next to possible Russian intrigues, it is thus mainly the internal tensions
in Armenia and Georgia that explain why western delegations flew out like a
swarm of bees to the Caucasus. After all, Kosovo, as is heard officially,
has to remain "a unique case".
From: Baghdasarian